South Florida in the cone for it's first Tropical Storm this season.

Well explained. Like most decent captains I tend to be pretty good at reading the weather, but I'm impressed. Do you happen to be a pilot? That would explain much.

Nah, pilots aren’t that smart, I know because I is one.

commanders weather notes

It's going east of there

Coming back West with the 17:00 local update, but possibly weakening.

Based on the latest Windy.com updates we should get no more than 30 knots steady in Fort Lauderdale with 40 gusts from the South.
I can live with that, no more than a typical thunderstorm.
We shall see, looking for the 20:00 and the 23:00 forecast before I can sleep good, but this thing is peanuts compared to the monster that raped the Bahamas last year.

Having looked at the spaghetti models while the forecast has it east, there are quite a few models that have a direct hit on South Florida.

Agree, I meant West of the previous East track, as in a direct hit, but at a weaker strength.
(5 Coors Light will do that to you.)
I still pulled the last piece of canvas a few minutes ago, the thing could strengthen while we sleep and I hate to be caught with my pants down.
Total of 8 dock lines and 3 thirty-six inch fenders right now, but no anchors out and no lines across no canal.
This one should be easy.
(For hurricane Wilma I had a side business called “Absent Owner’s Care”, took on responsibility for 8 boats, including a 92’ Cheoy Lee named Viking Fjord and numerous sailboats.
Needless to say I was busy driving around to various docks and Marinas to check lines and fenders for chafing and breaking in the middle of the ‘cane, I was the only guy on the road. No more, only my tub this time, easy duty. )

Models are useless unless you know how to interpret them... none of us do

it s reforming an eye (looking at Bahamas radar) but it s still very assymetrical with most of the convection on the E side. Also looks like it has some dry air being sucked in from the west too.

Thankfully it's a disorganized Cat one. Let's hope it stays that way. And stays offshore!

Ha, speak for yourself:
I don’t have to interpret a model, just using my tax money at work and letting NOAA do it for me with easy graphics, or Windy.com with fancy animations, including the European models right here on my iPad moving along at 16 mph to a coast near you.
All good, thx NOAA and Windy.

I don’t know what this is but it sure ain’t an intensifying storm....

It's only a cat 1 - 78mph winds and expected to strengthen
24.9N, 78.4W
NW @ 12mph

I use the FLL airport TAF, it shows no more than 45 knots in the gusts for the rest of the day. (Terminal Area Forecast)
Sitting outside right now, pretty good conditions with occasional rain and wind from the outer bands.

"Isaias predicted to cross Bahamas as Category 2 hurricane
BY NOAA
JULY 31, 2020, 9:03 AM
Hurricane Isaias is expected to strengthen from a Category 1 to a Category 2 hurricane as it crosses over the Bahamas. "

Great prediction ...

I feel like I'm watching a different hurricane than the experts right now. My eye sees a vortex developing out in the NE quadrant that will consume control of this storm, shifting it to a new stronger center further offshore, where it can quickly strengthen. Experts aren't saying this...

No, experts see it more like a storm destroyed by Andros. Maximum wind the rest of the way of 65 mph. Moving very slow at 7 mph. Fairly close to show Port St. Lucie to Canaveral. Then out to sea and landfall between Charleston and Georgetown. Still 65 mph as it cuts across SC, NC and VA. Dropping to 60 mph before leaving VA, down to 45 mph by the time it reaches MA. The various models are pretty consistent except as to it's speed of movement from SC North where GFS has it moving more rapidly than ECMWF or NAM.

I understand what the experts see. I also understand the models, what they see, but those models are projections based upon very fluid information. They change quickly and often significantly. Generally speaking the storm is being torn up by upper wind shear that won't allow the tall storm clouds to develop and substantiate a strong core. Andros is a pancake marshland. I don't think the island had much effect at all on the storm other than the timing of storm destruction somewhat matching its impact on the island. As the storm came apart yesterday, the "eye" was out over the bank, not over land.

But take a look at the radar just on the north end of the Little Bahama Bank. There's developing circulation there surrounded with heavy storms. The recognized storm eye is essentially a non-event.

I ve been watching the same thing. There is definitely some southerly motion on the west side of that cluster north of GB

Andros is mostly mangrove so plenty of water there and it s very flat. It has no effect on storms. Isaias’ demise started two days ago when it approached the ragged cats and the tongue of the ocean. Bahamas radar has been showing the eye opening up and some dry air being entrapped from the SW and S

not the first time NHC keeps a storm at a higher level just to make sure people don’t let their guard down. They just brought it to new levels this time. And then you have all the guys running websites and blogs desperate for traffic...

here is radar shot on 7/31 2PM. Pretty sad looking hurricane.