South Florida in the cone for it's first Tropical Storm this season.

Yeah, this thing is taking its time to organize and strengthen, moving west quickly, and it certainly seems what would be the center of circulation if organized is further south than being advertised by models. Heads up Gulf states...

They now have moved it back to the East?

Reportedly the European models project the Bermuda high to weaken and create an alley east of Florida.

Ask me Sunday. I'll explain wha'happen'

Yup, veering back East, but if the thing runs over Hispaniola the mountains may tear it apart.
Optimistic for now and planning a 2 night/3 day cruise tomorrow.
(With a quick return option of course..)

You are optimistic. Happy Cruzin!

As it moves off the Florida shore, what may be good for us is bad for others. Now showing a direct hit on the Bahamas as a CAT 1 hurricane.

They don't need another hurricane. Just heard the term "Covidcane", not a good combination.

Good setup, bring it on.

Now expected to increase to a CAT 2 before hitting the Bahamas and then it's path and speed are both uncertain.

Interesting comment from the Governor on TV 11:30: If the storm veers to the West it will weaken, if veers East it will strengthen.
Is there any science behind his prediction...?

(Besides friction from land perhaps.)

Same science that disrupts all storms. If part (or all) of the eye wall is over land, it looses it's source of energy.

True, I thought he was referring to something else, but no idea what that would be..
That being said, Wilma came across land it she was still mad as hell.
Started preparing boats, but not running lines across the canal yet.
Nobody else in the neighborhood has done preparations yet.
The 5PM update should be interesting.

True that about Wilma! If I recall, that storm was being accelerated by a big, sweeping cold front. It caused Wilma to have more punch than the stated Cat category. The backside of that storm was wicked. Keep in mind, Wilma came across the state from SW Florida and exited across Martin County. Lots of water in the everglades! And hot too, it's a shallow pool.

It's based upon the reaction of the storm to its shearing wind currents. If the storm strengthens, it will encourage it to turn to the north pushing against the NE flow of the upper winds. If it stays weak those same winds will keep shearing and storm won't push against the upper winds which would have it keep drifting further NW instead of making the faster turn.

Aha, that makes sense, thx.

I learned something new. Thank you!