Is Irene going to hit you?

A little early to sound the all clear for SE NE even thought there was a slight nudge east in the 5am and hits at a NE track later on. Promising but some models still have a CT/RI landfall

Unless you also had a chat with Irene we need another day to see if the trend continues

We here in Florida are safe from Irene. BUT, it looks like the Bahamas are getting majorly wacked with it. It's already a category 3. I wonder if all of our wonderful marinas we like going to are going to survive.

there is a chance the eye is going to pass on the northeast side of the Exumas and Nassau, so hopefully Staniel will avoid major damage... Eleuthera on the other hand is more at risk

THANK YOU KEVIN For this link. I am now hooked on Stormpulse and have it book marked. Excellent site!

I noticed that most projected tracks have shifted west over night, when they had previously been moving east. There's a high moving east through the Ohio valley and a dip in the jet stream that will hopefully push it back east, and of course the wild card will be what effect Hatteras has on her Saturday night, but anyone in the mid-Atlantic and N/E regions should be watching this carefully.

Many of Katrina's victims were left to die??????/ BY WHO?????

A word of warning about models.. Unless you know how to interpret them they are really not that helpful. The resource i rely on the most is the NHC forecast discussion which explains the reasoning behind the forecast track and makes sense of the spaghetti plate aka models

Another excellent resource is the wunderground blog. The author used to fly with the hurricane hunters and really knows his stuff. He covers many aspect of the forecast.

This link is iPhone version of the blog since that s what I m on right now
http://i.wund.com/auto/iphone/blog/JeffMasters/show.html#blog

Even though the track has shifted a bit to the west and a little further away from Nantucket, i m flying ip there tomorrow to take care of the boat i run. At this point we de going to stay put, although move into the boat basin for the weekend.

By their own ignorance and the stupidity of their mayor... Remember the school buses left to flood? How long did it take the mayor and governor to actually ask for federal help? 2 days?

I remember a NO city official saying they were trying to figure out what wind could the superdome handle WHILE they were moving people inside the structure

And they re elected their clown of a mayor!

By George Bush of course, weren't you paying attention?

RE: Pascal's #47 above


Even better are the bloggers on that WU page's Dr. Jeff segment--they made some early calls before the official info finally arrived, esp. the last westward jog a few hours ago. Lotta BS but some, like Levi32 nail it well.


Deja vu all over again for NY/New England?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b21g-5YBLs&feature=related

Prediction: this one's going to hurt.

Besides the buses that were left to sink instead of being used for evacuations, there was a nursing home that the owners just left, and there is this: http://newstandardnews.net/content/index.cfm/items/3537
And although I didn't intend to bring politics in this wscott52, "Atta boy Brownie" does have a familiar ring.

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/comment.html?entrynum=483

Weather commentary without big ***** or blonde hair.

OK, 'ta tas'

and speaking of links, one of the best source forhigh res imagery, especially detailed visible sat pix during the day, is the NRL Monterey

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

they have high res loops which really show the eye movemenet and detailed path

Hi All..........
Presently, the cross hairs are on NYC, 25 miles south of here
With our marina nicely protected from LI Sound EXCEPT for wind/seas from the south, I'm taking my 50 Hatteras elsewhere.
Plan A, I have a reservation up river where the owner is planning on putting me in a nicely protected corner surrounded by bulkheads.
Plan B, tomorrow, the same marina owner might/will decide to haul all of the bigger boats out.
Plan C, originally plan A which was to run around NYC & up the Hudson River to Haverstraw Marina. This plan was for when the storm was due to hit the eastern tip of Long Island.

Even though I have a full house generator, I have rooms booked at a local hotel for the family. There are just too many BIG trees around here.

I've always been on the fence on the hauling the boat out scenario. If in a well protected area where the will be little in the way of seas, my thought is the boat would be safer in the water. Your thoughts?

Anyway, we are supposed to get a direct hit (still far away though). I'll have cameras ready & will post if anything interesting comes up.

Best of luck everyone!!!!!!!
David

Dave, although we've been hit by a few that took their toll, it's been 73 years since we were really nailed. This one's starting to make me nervous. There a lot of warm water ahead of it now. Sounds like you have wise plans.

Dave, After riding out several in the water, I'd have to vote to HAUL OUT!!! Only two ways I'd consider leaving her overboard;
1. If you have a large area to swing in with at least 15:1 scope AFTER figuring in the surge which gets higher up rivers, a beast of an anchor with matching chain, and bottom you know you can hold in.
2. A smaller creek with deeply rooted trees on each bank you can spider web her out to on four corners.
I've done both and came out unscathed but believe me, the nights are longer during storms! Most insurance companies now prefer hauling also so it may pay to check with yours first.

Either way, good luck and stay safe everyone! Looks like we are going to be her first landfall and they usually flare up when they hit the stream right offshore of us but we just finished up all our prep and are in the waiting mode. The yard next door says they still have 50 to haul, long night ahead of them!

the 5pm hasbnt' changed much, just another nudge to the west between NC and NY BUT the track at days 4 and 5 has moved east which may indicate an increased threat to RI, MA and ME.

if that wasnt' the case, from CT i'd consider moving east to RI or MA but if this new bend to the NE after NY continues, then it's not a great option.

it's hard to generalize, if the yard is high enough not be affected by surge, AND doesn't have too many utility poles or trees, AND if they ground is reasonable hard, AND the yard crew chains the stnads, then you're much better on the hard, which most insurance policy will cover in part.

Except for moving inland or up the Hudson I doubt I'd recommend moving at all until we see what happens at Hatteras. If it goes inland it will peter and turn into a mostly rain event. But the east side is the strong side. I'd hate to go east and find I hadn't moved far enough east or should have gone west. BTW, if anybody on LI finds they need to move Sunday morning I have a couple of competant captains standing by. PM me before then so I can prioritize the list and have your info ready.

I prefer in the water. If a boat's been hauled out it has a heck of a lot of windage and only a bunch of jackstands keeping it from falling over. Once 1 falls over, the entire row of yachts falls over. This happened a lot in the marina's here in 2005.

I managed 7 yachts during 2005 that were in the water during Wilma which was a direct hit. The worst one had $15k in damage, this was from a tin roof from a 2 story office building about 200 feet away that pelted the transom. All in all the boat needed the transom repainted, 1 window replaced and a 2ft section of rubrail. This did snap 4 marginal wood pilings that should've been replaced anyways

All of the others had $500 of damage or less.


The trick is, you want your lines doubled and tied to multiple points, you want them to come tight at the same time, and you want them as tight as possible. Storm surge is very over-rated in most areas. Such as in Fort Lauderdale. The inlets are only wide enough to let so much water in per hour, then as the storm passes it retracts so you might get a 3' surge MAX, unless it comes over the barrier island and then you might as well forget about any boat, house, yacht. Area's with big open area's for the ocean water to come in such as Biscayne Bay, that's a different story. Steady pulling lines doesn't snap them, momentum against loose lines that tighten up quickly puts many times more force on them. I did remove all bimini tops, strataglass, cushions, and covers off of every boat. Also unless the boat is directly in front of an inlet or large body of water, such as Long Island Sound, moving them inland like up the New River is another waste of time. There's more debris that could fly up the New River, more boats to break loose, than right on the ICW, and the wind speed is the same.