Hurricane Mathew Coming to the U.S.

Just caught a segment on the local news about the traffic jam at the St. Lucie lock, near the American yard at the I-95 / Turnpike overpass...

Th reason for the hurricane warning from broward on is that while the storm should stay far enough to avoid anything over 50kts south of WPB, there is always a chance that it could get 20nm closer and bring minimal hurricane force winds.

Gtown and the Exumas is going to get a lot more than 100mph. I've been plotting each update and the whole chain will be in the northeastern eyewall. Gtown should escape the worst of the surge but not the cays. Surge is worst in shallow water and when the wind shifts to the west after the eye passes 30nm to the west, the surge is going to be massive. NHC says 10 to 15' in the cays and that will put everything under water

Maimi River bridges are going to be locked down at 8pm tonight...

Interesting too that people think of the Okeechobee as a hurricane hole and often it isn't as they also have a hurricane warning. Look at the surge charts and it's interesting.

Moving boats as far inland as possible use to be protocol, but after watching Wilma accelerate and intensify across Florida a few years ago... no place to hide!

Georgetown and the Exumas may get more surge, but may also not get more wind if the hurricane doesn't hit them directly.

The models now seem to have somewhat consolidated on going up the coast of FL and then heading out to see not long after that. The storm could shift to land, but no indication that's going to happen yet. Oh, and still one outlier model has it going to Louisiana.

We choose to have them docked as safely as possible on a dock we are confident in and move them nowhere. The history of storm surge in FLL is not major. The wind is a separate factor wherever you are, but we've taken the potential into consideration. With what is currently forecast, we don't see an issue. Our captain talked to someone three days ago, who decided to run, up to NC. Now that may turn out a good move but odds were it wasn't as NC was far more likely to get hit than FLL. It's all a gamble. Only advice I had is be safe. Do not put yourself at risk for tangible possessions.

I've been plotting the positions and also the infrared sat pics in between the three hour updates Right now the center is 42 nm from Gtown and will get as close as 30 in a couple of hours assuming no wobbling. Should be pretty much the same for the rest of the Exumas, putting everything in the northeasterly eyewall with surge coming from the bank after the eye passes. Worst case scenario. Gtown should be spared from the worst of the surge being on the NE shore but everything else is facing the sound.

To make things worst, with Nassau and Freeport most likely to take a big hit, there will be very aid flowing down to the exumas a

It's not Hype. I went through Wilma in Fort Lauderdale that's only 50 miles North of you. We had extensive damage. Boat snapped 2 pilings, entire patio roof 20'x40' came crashing down. There were so many down trees and power lines, you couldn't drive more than a mile or two for an entire week. We had no electricity for a day over 3 weeks. But here in Fort Lauderdale, you couldn't drive anywhere of any distance for 10-14 days because of the downed trees and powerlines. Also no gas stations had any gas for 2 weeks because they had no electricity. It was a royal mess.

Anyone near cocoa beach village marina have any experience with riding out a hurricane at that marina? We just purchased our dream boat 2 weeks ago. We r from ny and have boated for 20yrs in upstate ny fingerlakes and great Lakes area. We took delivery in Florida and decided to keep it at cocoa beach village marina out of several we looked at based on being so far inland with the barrier islands. The operators of the marina have been so great educating us on prepping for the hurricane and trying to put us at ease. We found out today that our boat dealers didn't put enuff coverage on our policy if a total loss accurred we will loose 100k in less than 2 weeks ownership.....thank you mm......and bad me for doing bizz with a handshake being told by their financial manager our deductible was 2% ....we find out today named storm deductible is 10%. They never told us that verbally. We are scared we absolutely love our new boat and know taking a 100k loss in less than 2 weeks will leave us boat less for a long time. We live and work to boat...it's our passion...can anyone from that area comment on pure guesses from storm experience if a total loss is highly possible in that marina? Again I know God only knows but a little advice from locals in that area may releivesome stress for us. Thank you

Well last time I checked FTL is 20 miles from miami, that's 1 gallon eqch way and there was plenty of gas down here. That's my point. Are hurricanes inconvenient ? Yes. can they be deadly? Yes but over a very very small area although Matthew is a worst case scenario following the coast

Well it's a bit late now but personally two days ago, I woudl have flown down and move the boat south, away from th closest point of approach to the coast.

I've been to cocoa beach village, at this point it is all about luck and where exactly the eye passes. Do you have someone you can trust to properly tie up the boat? Is it in a slip that's wide enough? That Marina is exposed to easterly buy t also to anything funneling down from the north or south.

Cocoa is likely to get some strong northerly winds. Storm surge should not be too much of a concern so it all comes down to wind and preparation.

What kind of boat? If ti was me I d be down there already not relying on used car salesmen

My protocal is different. I had 12 yachts I manage ride out Wilma in the water at their slips. 11 had no damage or less than $500 of total damage. One had $10k total in paint scuffs and 1 shattered window because the 2nd story metal roof at the office building at the marina tore off (100 yards away) and pegged the transom.

If the yacht is at a strong dock and no serious debris around it, I secure it in place. I've found that if you only account for normal tidal range in the lines, the lines will stretch 18" anyways with a load on them, I double up all lines and tie to as many points on land as possible, remove all cushions and canvas, add double fenders and let it ride. I did that with all the yachts I manage for this storm.

I've found that in Marina's and boatyards there tends to be lots of folks who don't remove their flying missles (cushions, strataglass, etc. etc.) and you're in such close proximity to them. On land the entire boat is exposed to the wind, versus 1/3 being underwater and the other 2/3 being somewhat buffeted by the houses and buildings. Also the ones on land, if one falls they ALL fall and are so close together. More damage occurs this way IMO.

For over a week you couldn't even get out of my neighborhood due to downed trees and powerlines.

I tied it off myself double and triple lines at all cleats per harbor masters recommendations. The triples where to hold a north wind as everyone in marina recommended. Docks are newer and very well built. Concrete pilings on main dock. Fixed dock not floating. I hung 8 fenders double stacked from water line to above rub rail up port side, the side dock finger is on. Slip is about 30" clear on both sides plenty of room to stern. Boat is in the cove of the docks not in open water. All canvas was taken down. It's a 58 azimut. Truly hoping it makes it. We love the boat. 2 weeks wasn't long enough to enjoy it lol.

What year is the boat? I used to run a 1998 58' Azimut, put lots of miles under her, like 10k NM in less than a year and a half.

Was that Marine Max that handled your insurance?

Wow that's a lot of running! It's a 2011 we had a 47 azimut traded it in for little bigger and little newer. I love azimuts gorgeous lines. They do have their issues as do all boats but I am a hands on guy that doesn't mind tinkering and fixing issues. It's just part of boating.