Hurricane Ike

I had the same reaction as Ken! while i understand that smaller boats don't have crew and the owners have to deal with homes and businesses, it's hard to understand how larger vessels were left there. Hauling out was no option either because of storm surge... even a news anchor on TV could figure that one out...

i dont' hide north and i've been playing that annual game for 25 years.

let's look at look at the evidence: NHC Archive page

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/IKE.shtml?

Throughout the day on Wed. the track shifted to the right, away from Corpus while the NHC discussion made it very clear that IKE was going to turn NW then N.

take the WED 5PM discussion:"THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD."

same story as always... models start shifting, but the official track lags behind waiting for confirmation. and indeed the 11pm showed a shift to the rigth, putting CC out of harms way and Galveston bay in the right / high surge quadrant. Some by Wed night and Thrusday morning, it was clear that heading south from Houston and Galveston was the best option.

in many ways Ike was a worst case scenario because of its size, but hurricane force winds only extended 50NM to the SW and 50kts winds to 75NM to the SW. Corpus Christy is what... 150miles from Galveston? a long running day on the ICW but feasible on thursday as soon as the forecast shifted north. There were probably some anchorages or shelter north of CC too that would have been out of the dangerous winds.

here is another set of pictures posted elsewhere
http://rklowe.zenfolio.com/p219036363