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Giga Yacht vs Mini-Cruise Ship

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by newbee, Dec 6, 2004.

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  1. newbee

    newbee New Member

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    ....or maybe we are just experiencing a temporrary period of over-build that will not remain in balance. :confused:

    Other question.

    In your opinion what is the most likely implication of 1+ years of continued US dollar weakness on the industry?

    A) US yards experience re-surgence at the expense of Europe as exchange rate favours US buyers building at home.

    B) No yards benefit because US dollar weaknesss just leads to softening aggregate demand for yachts period. Overall pricing environment deteriorates.

    C) Chinese yards are major beneficary & take 10 year step forward in "acceptance" in yacht building industry.

    D) None of the above/other
  2. newbee

    newbee New Member

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    Stephen, AMG, et al

    I've been messing around with a variety of spreadsheets on these questions. When I get a chance, I'll post a simplified example here to try and illustrate my build,buy, rent "point" (assuming I actually have one ;) )

    Maybe we can make it a bit of a collaborative excercise. If you have some example vessels you'd like to use for the illustration feel free to suggest.
  3. AMG

    AMG YF Moderator

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    Jumping back to this question;

    To start with I think the order-book is not depending so much on currency fluctuations eventhough there are segments of the market that are more sensitive than others. The mega-rich will continue to build where they get the best product, not the cheapest.

    But as with all industries I think, or hope, that design will be increasingly important. The car industry has always been aware of this and now you see how the american producers are trapping up the "design war".

    Perhaps I shouldn´t say this, but there is still a long way to go before yachts are what they could be in terms of purposeful AND appealing design. It´s still too many who just copy trends, without really having the insight in use or life onboard yachts. Which leaves a big window for improvements but also a need of better awareness among media and yachtbrokers, who basically are supporting this industry as it generates their income.

    So, maybe you are right, money is always the bottom line... ;)
  4. D'ARTOIS

    D'ARTOIS New Member

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    A very interesting discussion to follow; although - top yachts and top horses and top real estate will always have a high resale value, in most cases over their original value. But that counts only for the top pieces, as I believe.

    To get a deliveryslot from a top ten yard, will take a few years and not many will or can wait that long. If you are looking in the smaller segment, the situation is different and negotiations between customer and yard are on a different level.

    In this segment of yachtbuilding is a lot of competition and a prospect client may easily tempted to go to another yard if they are not satisfied by the first yard of their choice. There are many designers in this level of the market with attractive designs and there is plenty choice available. Leadtimes to preparation are shorter, it is easier to find sub-contractors that are suitable for the job, engineering is less complex and that all is just contrary to superyacht building that requires very long preparation prior to the laying of the keel. In this top-level of yachtbuilding it is hardly thinkable that a flagceremony is annulled, or flatly refused.

    Even in topnotch building, a yard, and even one of the most famous, can face unexpected difficulties as had recently happened to a yard with the delivery of a very large yacht.
    In such a case, a shipyard can go down, so to speak. It is close to impossible to pre-calculate the buildingcosts of such a yacht and only a very few will ever learn of what that particular yacht have costed. Not even at the flag ceremony the yard will precisely know what the exact costs were, before they made their final calculation, some time after the original delivery to the client.

    After-work, things to be changed, not functionning aparatus may fill a small book.

    You can nicely discuss economics, but for the smaller yachtbuilders whose max is around 45 meters, the flux of the dollar is definately important. As are other economic situations.
    I have that experienced a few times and I have therefore a strong dislike for this whole battling about getting the order yes or no, the more when a prospect customer frankly tells you who your competitor is.

    If you belong to the sub-top you have not the privileges of the bigger yards who do not have that heavy competition, better said, of course they do compete between each other but mostly a client on that level has quite often already decided to which yard to go for his/hers/their commission.

    Another fact that good yachts, well known in the industry fetch good prices is the quality of building. And that counts for any yacht.
    So there are real gems, and there are also "other situations".

    Again, this is a very nice discussion, but the real performance has to be done by the yard, where everything grows tense as a steelwire under its max stress when the launching date arrives.

    I have twice experienced a refusal, in one case the yacht was too high to pass a certain bridge, in another case due to malpractice of the particular yard.

    These are the other sides of yachtbuilding.

    Oh yes, before I forget: I hope you will never have royalty as a prospective client.
    (If this sentence is not passable moderator, then remove it)
  5. newbee

    newbee New Member

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    Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I'm starting to see through the fog a bit.

    I note that some of the German yards, & their bankers went through a bit of a tough patch in with their small cruise ship segment. ie Cassens Werft Sun-Bays I, II, & III seemed to flop and have been reserected by new owners in different forms. Blohm & Voss seemed to have similar difficulties with the fast hull small cruise ships Explorer & ??.

    Do you know if yards in Europe are turned off this segment or was that just a typical bump in the road?
  6. newbee

    newbee New Member

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    I've attached a little worksheet to illustrate my puzzlement. I've used Wayne Huizinga & his Floridian/Aussie Rules as an example. Admittedly it's an oversimplified calc, but I think it's basically sound.

    What I think it demonstrates is that Huizinga would be better off to invest $65 big ones back into what made him a billionaire to start with and Charter Aussie rules every day with what he earns from that investment. At her current charter rate he could rent her 52 weeks a year and still have money left over. No risk of ownership plus up-side.

    Now, I appreciate that a paltry $3.5 million a year savings for many billionaires may be just nuisance money or a rounding error. So I can completely understand him concluding "screw it I just want to own the dam thing and if it costs me an extra $3.5 year so be it". So by extension, I can also understand the 200 or so a year of new-builds or high end trades that might fall into this money's-no-object category. BTW anyone know how many bilionaires there are in the world?

    But what about the guy with only $65-200 million of net worth. Are they as likely to pass on the $3.5 rounding error? my quandry is understanding this group and their yacht consumption habits.

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Feb 10, 2005
  7. Fractional

    Fractional New Member

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    Fractional Ownership

    Newbie:

    I've been following your thread closely and agree with almost everything that's been said. Your comments about the fractional ownership industry are true, however my company seems to have a pretty good business model and handle on this emerging industry.

    We focus on management first and foremost. That is the real key to the whole industry working and we're really the only company that specializes in yachts that have more than one owner.

    If you'd like more information, visit our website for more information or please contact me directly: MonocleYachts.com
    Marty@MonocleYachts.com
  8. YachtForums

    YachtForums Administrator

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