From $2.00 gas to $5.00 gas in 4 years

Smart or Mini?

Smart or Mini?
Now I ask you from a marketing point of view which of these two vehicles (post #151) are the most appealing 'looks wise'. My vote is the mini hands down.

Why do these ' alternative vehicles' have to look so funny??

Why doesn't someone do an electric Mini ??
(I do know one has been done, but a bit overpowered )

The normal Smart is a twoseater, the fourseater model looks different but I still prefer the Mini, a car I have been driving since the 60:s. Here is a model for yachties: http://www.allcarnews.com/article/castagna-tender/

Just read something interesting...

First of all, Economics 101:

1. Demand goes up, supply doesn't: price goes up
2. Demand goes down, supply doesn't: price goes down
3. Supply goes up, demand doesn't: price goes down

However, CanadianDriver.com had this article:

So evidently there should be a Rule #4 in Economics 101.

Iran and Brazil Can Do It. So Can We !!

By Gal Luft

Washington Post
Sunday, July 6, 2008; B01

When the founding fathers declared our independence, they could not have imagined that, 232 years later, the United States would be so spectacularly dependent on foreign countries. It would be roughly eight more decades before oil gushed from a well in Titusville, Pa., marking the beginning of the global oil economy; it took eight decades more for the United States to become a net oil importer. But the republic's disastrous dependence on foreign oil has increased by leaps and bounds ever since.

In 1973, when OPEC imposed its oil embargo, U.S. oil imports composed 30 percent of our needs; today, they make up more than 60 percent, with a growing proportion of that crude coming from the world's least stable regions. At around $145 a barrel, the United States, by my calculations, will spend more on imported oil this year than it will spend on its own defense budget, and much of that money will flow into the coffers of those who wish us ill.

Since oil dependence is so unappealing, you'd think that energy independence would be an easy sell, especially on this Fourth of July weekend. But in fact, very few policy ideas have been so ridiculed. A 2007 report by the National Petroleum Council, a privately funded group that offers advice from the oil and gas industries to the federal government, calls energy independence "unrealistic"; a recent book, "Gusher of Lies," by Robert Bryce, a former fellow at a think tank funded in part by energy interests, described energy independence as a "dangerous delusion"; and a 2006 Council on Foreign Relations task force went so far as to accuse those promoting energy independence of "doing the nation a disservice by focusing on a goal that is unachievable over the foreseeable future."

Ignore them. Energy independence does not mean that the United States must be entirely self-sufficient. It simply means reducing the role of oil in world politics -- turning it from a strategic commodity into merely another thing to sell.

Is energy independence a pipe dream? Hardly. In the electricity sector, the mission has already been accomplished. Remember President Jimmy Carter in his cardigan during the oil crises of the 1970s, urging Americans to save electricity? It took us just one decade to wean the electricity sector from oil. Today, only 2 percent of U.S. electricity comes from oil, according to the Energy Department. Could we do something similar with transportation, where American cars and trucks still gulp oil-based fuel greedily? At least four very different countries -- dictatorships and democracies alike -- are already making serious headway toward that goal. It's past time to pay attention to their example.

The first country, surprisingly enough, is Iran. The Islamic republic has lots of crude but little capacity to refine it, leaving Tehran heavily dependent on gasoline imports. The country's blustery president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is fully aware that this is Iran's Achilles' heel and worries that a comprehensive gasoline embargo could cause enough social unrest to undermine his regime.

So Ahmadinejad has launched an energy-independence program designed to shift Iran's transportation system from gasoline to natural gas, which Iran has plenty of. "If we can change our automobiles' fuel from gasoline to [natural] gas during the next three-four years," he said last July, "we won't need gasoline anymore." His plan includes a mandate for domestic automakers to make "dual-fuel" cars that can run on both gasoline and natural gas, a crash program to convert used vehicles to run on natural gas and a program to convert Iranian gas stations to serve both kinds of fuel. According to the International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles, more than 100 conversion centers have been built throughout the country: Iranians can drive in with their gasoline-only cars, pay a subsidized fee equivalent to $50 and collect their newly dual-fuelled cars several hours later. Ahmadinejad's plan, which has been largely ignored by the West, means that within five years or so, Iran could be virtually immune to international sanctions.

While Iran is moving quickly toward energy independence, Brazil is already there. It's a striking turnaround; three decades ago, the country imported 80 percent of its oil supply. But since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Brazilians have invested massively in their sugar-based ethanol industry and created a fleet of vehicles that can run on the resulting fuel. According to the Sugar Cane Industry Union (Unica), 90 percent of the new cars sold this year in Brazil will be flexible-fuel vehicles that cost an extra $100 to make but can run on any combination of gasoline and ethanol.

Lest anyone think that can't be done in the United States, many of those new cars are made by General Motors and Ford. All it really takes to turn a regular car into a flex-fuel one is a fuel sensor and a corrosion-resistant fuel line.

Discovering how to make hydrocarbons and carbohydrates happily cohabit in the same fuel tank isn't all that Brazil has done; it has also increased domestic oil production. Its efforts have not only broken the yoke of Brazil's oil dependence but also insulated the country's economy from the pain of the current spike in global oil prices. Gasoline prices have nearly doubled elsewhere since 2005, but in Brazil, they have been almost frozen. This year, more ethanol will be sold in Brazil than gasoline. Sounds pretty good, doesn't it?

Like Brazil, China has decided to replace gasoline with alternative fuels. But unlike the United States and Brazil, where the favorite substitute is ethanol, China has embraced a different alcohol: methanol. Several provinces in China already blend their gasoline with methanol, a clear, colorless liquid also known as wood alcohol, and scores of methanol plants are currently under construction there. The Chinese auto industry has already begun to produce flex-fuel models that can run on methanol. Shanxi, a province in central China that produces much of the country's coal, has even issued stickers granting cars that use pure methanol free passage on the province's toll roads.

The distinction between methanol and ethanol is just one letter (but then, so is the difference between Iran and Iraq). Both biofuels should be in our basket of options. True, ethanol packs more energy per gallon and is less corrosive than methanol. But methanol is cheaper and far easier to produce in bulk. While ethanol can be made only from agricultural products such as corn and sugar cane, methanol can be made from natural gas, coal, industrial garbage and even recycled carbon dioxide captured from power stations' smokestacks -- an elegant way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Israel offers a fourth testament to what leadership, ingenuity and audacity can achieve. Last year, it launched an electric-car venture designed to turn Israel -- which obviously has some tensions with the region's big oil producers -- into an oil-free economy. Israelis will soon be able to replace their gasoline-fueled cars with battery-operated ones, which they'll plug into the hundreds of thousands of recharging points planned to be erected throughout the country. Israeli motorists, the government hopes, will be able to swap their batteries in a matter of minutes at dedicated stations or recharge them at home or at work. "Oil is the greatest problem of all time -- the great polluter and promoter of terror," said Israeli President Shimon Peres, the project's political patron. "We should get rid of it."

For each of the four countries, knocking oil off its pedestal is no longer a theoretical proposition but a reality in the making. But despite the lip service our own politicians pay to the need to reduce our oil dependence, none of the solutions offered by Iran, Brazil, China and Israel are even under consideration in the land of the free and the home of the brave.

Just go down the list. Natural-gas vehicles are nowhere to be seen. Brazilian sugar-cane ethanol is barred from the country by a steep 54-cent-per-gallon import tariff, courtesy of ethanol protectionists and their representatives in Congress. (No tariff is imposed on imported oil, of course.) For similar reasons, flex-fuel cars sold in the United States are certified to run only on ethanol, keeping methanol and other viable biofuels off the market -- even though they are cheaper and can be made from a wealth of coal and biomass resources. The kind of electric cars deployed in Israel have never returned to U.S. showrooms since General Motors' mass crushing of its EV1 -- the subject of the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?"

It's time to get serious. Policies such as "drill more" and "drive smaller cars" all keep us running on petroleum. At best, they buy us a few more years of complacency, while ensuring a much worse dependence down the road when America's conventional oil reserves are even more depleted -- whether or not we drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The hard truth is that real energy independence can be achieved only through fuel choice and competition. That competition cannot take place as long as (according to the Department of Transportation) we continue to put 16 million new cars that run only on petroleum on our roads every year, each with an average street life of 16.8 years -- thereby locking ourselves into decades more of petroleum dependence.

So let's remember the old saying: When in a hole, stop digging. If every new car sold in the United States were a flex-fuel vehicle and if millions of Americans could plug in their electric cars, gasoline would be facing fierce competition at the pump and the socket. Moreover, our money would have migrated from Exxon to Pepco, from the Middle East to the Midwest -- as well as to scores of poor, biomass-producing countries in Africa, Latin America and South Asia, including the few countries that don't yet hate our guts. This, and no other, is the road to independence.

luft@iags.org


Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and co-founder of the Set America Free Coalition, a bipartisan alliance of groups promoting U.S. energy independence.

Fair enough Brian, but what about the World Bank report that states biofuels are responsible for the 75% rise in food prices?

Optimism...hopefully

That is scary, isn't it.

But haven't they found some big reserves off Brazil??

And I don't hear a lot about Venezula these days...it was estimated that she had the biggest reserves in the world...except it was a very heavy crude, But isn't that more productive than oil sands on a density basis??

I would agree with more drilling, but that is LONG term. Can you honestly tell me that in two years time the auto industry couldn't drag out some old designs and cut the engine sizes from 8 cyl to 6 cyl, and put one more gear in the transmission (or go std shift) and that alone would gain you a 20% better fuel economy!!.

Or how about two years to install a few of these CNG fillers, either personal home units or at selected gas stations:
CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) vehicle at home
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgcNJWaO_Fw
This is not rocket science!!

Honda already has the cars and I believe it is not that difficult to convert a normal gas engine to CNG.

(Disclosure: I have heavily invested in natural gas in our Marcellus Shale)

T. Boone Pickins is suggesting natural-gas powered vehicles as well

I don't think so. We made up our minds and put a man on the moon in 8 YEARS !!...unbelievable. We can attack this problem as well if those jerks in Washington stop trying to play political football with this serious problem

"We can attack this problem as well if those jerks in Washington stop trying to play political football with this serious problem "

I don't mean to migrate the topic, but ... that isn't going to happen until we find some way to separate the jerks from the money by making it illegal for a political office holder or candidate to accept a contribution from any person who is not a registered voter in that politiician's district, i.e. if you can't vote for the jerk, you can't give the jerk a dime. Accepting a cent from anyone else should be a felony, just like the bribe it is. Corporations can not register to vote and few lobbyists live in the jerk's district. Limit contributions to some low figure such as $500 and prohibit political parties from recieving money from other than registered voters.

I think we would see an immediate and healthy change for the better.

Chinese subsidies

I was watching special program by Ted Koppel on the Chinese auto situation last night, and realized that I was not aware of the big fuel subsidies offered to their populace by the government. It brought a question to my mind, 'how can a country with so little internal fuel supplies afford to subsidize the cost to their public??'

Here is one article, and with one bright spot on the horizon:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4183258.ece
"China’s fuel subsidies have helped to support the country’s growing demand but it was thought these would remain in place until after the Olympics, because the authorities would not want to trigger social unrest.

Global crude prices have been rising sharply and Chinese domestic fuel prices have lagged behind. The price difference has highlighted the contradiction between demand and supply, Chinese state television said, quoting the country’s National Development and Reform Commission."

Maybe after the Olympics we will see some changes??

Advertising windfall

Newspapers, TV, etc, etc would never support such a thought...they make too much money from the huge advertising expenditures.


Another thought....where do each of the States in this union get a HUGE portion of their operating expenses...gas taxes of course. There are many forces that do not want to see big changes in the staus-quo, or certain would offer big resistance.

New Tranmissions from Ford

Wow, Somebody must have actually listened...just got this message thru DesignFax Online

Wheels:
Ford accelerates shift to 6-speed transmissions
The big shift is on at Ford Motor Company, as the automaker plans to more than double the number — to 1.4 million — of fuel-efficient, 6-speed automatic transmissions in its North American cars and trucks by the end of 2009.

The advanced transmissions provide customers 4% to 6% improved fuel economy compared with typical 4- and 5-speed gearboxes, as well as better acceleration and a quieter and more refined driving experience, according to the company.

“Advanced 6-speed automatic transmissions are an important element in our sustainability strategy to improve fuel economy for our customers and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in our new vehicles by 2020,” says Barb Samardzich, vice president, Ford North America Powertrain Operations. “They also deliver improved acceleration and smoother shifting, all at a great value for consumers.”

By the end of 2012, it is estimated that 98% of Ford’s North American automatic transmissions will be advanced 6-speed gearboxes.

Less RPM, more MPG
Ford’s newest 6-speed is the 6F35, which debuts in the 2009 Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner sport-utility crossover vehicles and replaces the current 4-speed. It also will be used in the 2009 Mazda Tribute, as well as two other vehicles early next year.

For 2009, the Escape and Mariner receive more powerful engines, but even with that improved power, they also increase their fuel economy by 1 mpg thanks to the new 6F35.

Key to the new 6-speed transmissions is increased gear span compared with 4- and 5-speeds. This allows vehicle powertrains to operate at a more optimum level, depending on the particular driving situation.

“For example, a higher first gear delivers more torque when accelerating from a stop while the deeper overdrive gear enables a vehicle’s engine to use less energy at highway cruising speeds, which saves gas,” says Phil Yuhasz, engineering director, Transmission and Driveline Engineering. “In addition, with two more gears, a 6-speed transmission allows the engine to operate at its optimum efficiency, for a greater period of time, further boosting fuel economy.”

The 6F35 is produced at Ford’s Van Dyke Transmission Plant in Sterling Heights, MI, and will double the plant’s production capacity to 1.3 million units annually. Van Dyke also assembles the 6F50 front-wheel-drive transmission. Last year, 221,000 6F50 transmissions were produced for the Ford Taurus, Ford Taurus X, Ford Edge, Mercury Sable, and Lincoln MKX.

Flexible for added fuel-saving technology
Ford 6-speed gear ratios also play a key role in the company’s new PowerShift dual-clutch transmission. Currently used in the new European Ford Focus and Ford C-Max, PowerShift combines the ease and permanent motion of a conventional 6-speed automatic transmission with the performance of a manual transmission. It also delivers a fast and sporty shift while maintaining excellent shift smoothness.

“These technologies are all about fuel economy,” says Craig Renneker, chief engineer for new automatic transmissions, Ford Powertrain Operations. “And our advanced 6-speed transmissions will mate perfectly with the new Ford EcoBoost engines that are on the way.”


Brian noted,
They are only about 10 years LATE !!!

Mercedes got 7-speed automatics a couple of years ago....

...interesting submission on another forum..

Energy Storage

Interestingly I just heard from T. Boone that China was trying to buy all of their futures

I don't know that we require a 'quantum leap in revolutionary technology'. I think we just need to exploit alternative technologies and existing energy supplies we've not taken advantage of.

I'm unsure of those energy crisis in our past that have us coming up with something vastly new. When and what were these crises points of vastly new technologies, other than the discovery of oil energy??

I am firmly convinced that one thing we need is MUCH BETTER methods of STORING energy. With that technology we could really take advantage of the huge nuclear reactor...our sun...what a fantastic source. Spoke of that here,
Ship Propulsion & Energy Supply/Management

I believe we will see very significant new 'battery' technology become viable within TWO years. Finally the fuel prices in the USA are driving for solutions to the problem.

T. Boone Pickens' Plan

Just watched a number of sequential YouTube interviews with this guy who has taken it upon himself to launch a $10Million dollar ad campaign here in the USA to suggest a plan to start attacking the situation. Even the threat of this plan should give some speculators pause to reconsider as we are not suddenly 'over the brink of supply' yet.

...interesting if you have time...

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yztOgaxS_7Q

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7m-HPqls5I

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRFu2w-QDrM

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUVyszpSFCs

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKRNjD9HB9g

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 6
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oyk8-zcTKoc

Well that should make his buddies in the business happy and richer. Hopefully the legislature finally will grow some and tell him to stick it.