2nd Attempt-Coronavirus Covid 19 and the Marine Industry

What lengths do you consider mid-sized???

I was using the term as it was presented earlier in this thread- 35' to 60'.

Who knows. It will totally depend on how fast the economy bounces back and how bad it gets before rebounding. There IS a large shortage of used boats in the upper end of that size range because nobody built any boats from 2009-2012/3 in that size to speak of.

About the same as the stock market and my health. I think most people are trying to figure out what will happen in the next 4 weeks, not the next 4 years.

Yep agreed. Westrec runs the marinas on behalf of the city of Chicago(I think via the park district), and the city is drastically underwater, no pun intended, with the country's largest unfunded pension liability, so I'm sure that they will try to avoid any discounting whatsoever.
The language in the operating "rules" that may be applicable:

C. 7. No Warranties15

Harbors makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the condition of the harbor (including, floats, buoys, anchors, walkways, gangways, ramp, gear and related items) or the suitability of the mooring and the harbor for permittee’s intended purposes.

C. 8. Emergencies, Storms or Other Acts of God16

Harbor expects Permittees to have made suitable arrangements for safe, sheltered anchorage during storms, and Permittee warrants such arrangements have or will be made. Permittee may not assume that the Harbor will be safe, sheltered anchorage during storms. In the event of an impending storm or other emergency, Harbor in its sole discretion, is authorized to do whatever Harbor deems appropriate and reserves the right to move or evacuate unattended vesselsat the Permittee’s risk and expense. UNDERTAKING TO MOVE OR EVACUATE VESSELS SHALL NOT BE DEEMED AB ASSUMPTION OF RESPONSIBILITY FO THE SAFETY, SECURITY AND CARE OF BOAT BY HARBOR, NOR SHALL HARBOR BE DEEMED A BAILEE OR THE PERMITTEE.

Well, the used market in the next four or five years is certainly related to new boat sales going back at least four or five years. So, in another five years that would include ten model years of used inventory.

Now as an example look at a historically major player in mid size boats in the USA, Sea Ray, and compare their new model line up today vs their model line up from five years ago. Above 40’ there’s no there, there.

Some mid sized boats will be built by someone but who will build them and in what numbers will they sell? So, there are two possible answers to your question.

First, a limited number of late model used boats could help to keep prices stable. Less inventory could mitigate less demand.

Second, the rest of the mid size used boat inventory, the older boats, I think will drop dramatically in value. This was already happening. The buy-in for an older boat is attractive to some. But getting thousand dollar-ed to death ...well that takes a lot of enjoyment out of it. A $120 hour tech is the same rate whether he is working on a $2,500,000 2016 Viking or a $250,000 1999 Viking. And it's essentially the same across all the other ownership expenses. So the numbers are getting to a place where they just don't pencil out on the older boats.

After the 2008 crash there were some incredible deals to be had on lightly used boats for quite a while, and considering the lack of use most boats realize putting $200,000 into a $250,000 boat can go a long way. Personally I think there's an even bigger crash coming from this. Of course buying a 20 y.o. boat and thinking you won't have to put some serious money into it is a fool's errand.

Shooting up like a rocket once this virus thing is under control:
The smartest brains in the world are working overtime to find a vaccine and a cure for the Corona virus, it will probably happen this year.
Hopefully..

Very likely. That could happen a lot of places and they'd be closing on short notice.

The concept of an unknown/asymptomatic employee ( but infectious ) has given us a lot of concern about take out. My wife is quite the cook and so far we have chosen to eat in.
I know this does not help our local restaurants but how can you be certain about who is cooking, cleaning protocols, and the packaging of your food. Especially in a fast food chain restaurant.

Whenever I cruised. and especially when I transported, dinner out was an every night routine. Breakfast and lunch on board were fine, cause I had things to do and places to get to, but when I hit the dock at night after running for 10 or 15 hours I was too exhausted to cook a dinner. It also let me soak up some local color and meet people (what I loved best about cruising). Otherwise I'd just be slapping a sandwich together or eating chips before crashing the whole trip. Can't imagine running the coast without a steak or burger at Coinjock or having Hush-puppies in Hilton Head or.... Here at home my wife (a very good Italian cook) doesn't usually have the time or energy to cook when she gets home from work. I can make a sandwich, a really good hero or pizza, but I'm an Irishman. For my mother (who grew up during the Irish potato famine) the difference between a hamburger, meatloaf and meatballs was the shape. The only spice in our house was salt. Depending on my cooking skills one could starve. Except for fast food and Chinese I don't like most take out. Most food doesn't travel well. We got Applebee's the other day and the hamburger was just soggy by the time we got it home, and we live 5 minutes from the store.

So reporting from downstate NY .I can tell you most of have us are angling to get boats in early..on any sunny warmish day boaters are engaged in the activity of getting ready of some sort..in spite of the media reports some common sense is prevailing..many municipal ramps open..marinas working..not sure under what essential activity they claim..you will see in the next few weeks that stats coming out from cities, it's the old and sick and those of bad health that are getting hospitalized..many of the self induced poor health patients are the ones dying..good news is the "typical "seasonal flu deaths in nys are way down..we will have our typical season up here barring a huge recession which will encourage dockside boating..

Fully agree when cruising. There’s almost always a great restaurant or bar for food in ports we visit. Although we will sometimes choose to grill something too.
I was mainly referring to right now with the Covid stay at home orders.

I continue to wonder how the typical auto repair shop or dealer is somehow less risk to public health than a marina, boat yard, or boat dealership. Especially if we are talking about appropriate social distancing and hand washing.

Glad to hear Babylon is doing so well, but the headline on the Patch this morning was "
One month after first known coronavirus case was reported, Suffolk tops 17,000 — with 323 residents dead" including a nurse at Huntington Hospital.

Btw, what exactly are "self induced poor health patients".

I assume you're main boating is fishing. I have a lot of experience at Surf Side, the Anchorage and most marinas in that area. Most of the boaters there either hang at their docks or head for the dock parties at Cedar Beach and Fire Island. Fishermen are always the first out. The others aren't moving so fast.

Not less at risk. More essential. Most people need their cars to get food, medicine and the like. I don't see too many yachts in Walgreen's parking lot.

Since most marinas and ramps here haven't started their season yet I don't believe they've figured it out yet. So it's the NYS regulations that govern. No gatherings of more than 10 people and maintaining minimum 6' between persons. Fine per violation is $1,000 ( although nobody is looking to collect fine. They just want to stop the virus.) Rules are changing almost daily.

Just saw this from SeaTow:

Infographic Courtesy of Sea Tow.