2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

There's been a new twist. The European models were showing it not crossing deep onto land but turning up the coast and now the forecast has been modified with the storm making initial land contact around Fort Pierce, but heading north and following the coast indefinitely. In some models it goes all the way up the coast as far as Canada. The current path shows a CAT 2 as it reaches the Jacksonville area. Slowing down and loss of steering currents have led to this change. However, the forecast advises we "should be prepared for additional adjustments to the left or right depending on future model trends." A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the Bahamas.

Winds are now forecast at 140 mph as it passes just north of Marsh Harbour. Still 140 mph as it hits in the Fort Pierce area and 100 mph when it reaches northern Florida.

Are you in Miami for this one?

One marina on the Miami River wanted $90 per foot for the storm, yes $90. I recommended to the owner to run it to Key West for the same money, new 66' MY. Which has been out of the NOAA cone, but the owner declined. I have the boat tied up at Bahia Mar with 15, 3/4"x50' lines, 2 15"x48" fenders, 2 A4 polyballs, 2 A5 polyballs and 3 smaller fenders. The docks are very strong there, and floating, so everything is tight since you don't have to account for tide. No momentum should keep lines from snapping.

The 11 PM update shows it now at 140 mph and a build ahead up to 145 mph but actually lightening up a bit before landfall. Landfall even comes into question with it skirting the coast and that could mean over land or many miles off shore. Still would impact land but in a different way. That part of the forecast is going to continue to change.

You takin

Oops, got cut off.

Good news, the 05:00 ‘cane track shows a sharp North turn before hitting the coast.
Lucked out again, that’s is what clean living will do for ya..

Looking at latest forecast, what I like to call “the Cone of Uncertainty” is over 400 miles wide at the Florida pivot. Pretty clear indicator of how much confidence forecasters have in this particular forecast.

The official forecast now has no landfall in Florida. However, within the cone it still could contact the coast. There were always some models that showed this path. Now, however, the most used models agree, but there are still some outliers that have landfall. So, some cause for potential relief but still way too early to feel comfortable either in Florida or in other coastal states.

Unfortunately, the models all have it either over or just slightly north of Marsh Harbour so considerable destruction likely in the Bahamas.

WOW, $90 that's unconscionable. Does Florida have price gouging laws?

Yes, we do and major companies have been fined heavily. Not sure they would be aware of or chase down a single dock owner.

$90 a foot????
That's just taking the p*ss. Period.

I think $90 per foot is the going seasonal nightly rate in the NE US. Or at least seems like it.