$2.00 Gas ?

In Denmark we are paying 8.24 dollars/gallon and have so for a year or two.

There has even been rumors that in a few years that price will be doubled.

-but but- In Denmark everything is much more expensive than what you are used to in the US. for example Tax is 62%, cars is 180%.

These prices on gas definitely have a big impact on the yacht-market here.

Where Have All the Leaders Gone

When I originally came across this subject thread, that was my concern too...the impact on the boat market, particularly power boats. This past year has seen a BIG impact on the small motorboat market in the USA, and powerboats in the USA represent 80% of the boating market. I would venture to guess that over 50% of the manufacturers will be out of business by the middle of next year. This may even be a bigger 'hit' than occurred with our 'luxury tax' bombshell a while back.

But now I see a much bigger problem with this significant fuel price increase, combining with other factors to not only effect the boat manufacturing market, but the American consumer market in general, and thus the world's economy. Like it or not, if America really slows down, the world will as well. Give our Washington guys a real big hand for such fine leadership

Just the other day someone sent me an excerpt from Lee Iacocca's new book, (remember the guy who saved Chrysler)

"Where Have all the Leaders Gone",by Lee Iacocca
http://www.leadershipnow.com/leadershop/9781416532477excerpt.html
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_17/b4031119.htm

This thread is probably heading to the Yacht Club.

That being said...
Post WW2 the US economy has driven up the the world economy. The problem now is that the US has been doing it on borrowed money for a bit too long.
Some of the sovereign lenders are now hedging their bets and converting their holdings. The US is not the world's economic engine, or at least not to the extent that it was in the 50s and 60s. Perhaps the current subprime situation was the result of a last kick at the can for a part of the American Dream.

Will things change? Of course they will. Will some of the manufacturers go down the tubes? Yes, and others will look outside for new markets and thrive.
Will sail assisted boats become the norm or even straight sail? Probably. Will they be built in the US? I don't know. Will alternative energy sources come in to play for the larger yachts? Yes, for a couple of good reasons, one of which has already been mentioned, public acceptability/public perception. Another reason is that if the technologies exist then there will always be an early adopter even if the cost is substantially higher than using current widely available means to achieve the same ends.
I noted the recent achievement of Nanosolar. They've hit a remarkable pricepoint in US$. Just think what that pricepoint translates in to when it's purchased with Euros or Yen.

Will some people walk away from their Toyota Tundras and Cadillac Escalades? Sure, but so what. If the banker that did the loan in the first place was an idiot for signing it off then so be it.

The US finance crisis has also hit the market in 2007. From the estimated 975 to 1000 units over 80 ft, "only" 916 contracts got signed which is assumed to be caused by the finance crisis (on top of the weak dollar matter).

On the new technology issue Royal Huisman has made a start with Ethereal.
The yacht stacks a massive Lithium Ion battery pack that can take over the power requirement during night sailing.

In general; The changes needed on this scale take a lot of tame, but I feel that the issue of recognising the problem and the awareness has finally got a global basis.

I think the USA is still the world's economic engine. Watch what happens to China's growth rate when the US consumer puts the brakes on.

Well this fellow doesn't see it that way for the American boatbuilding industry, nor the auto industry either:
American Boatbuilders World Competitiveness

Maybe you've been drinking some of that Washington kool-aid too.

Kool-aid

Perhaps I've just met enough people in the US that have the brains and the intestinal fortitude that I think can do what it takes. I won't even try and argue with the posted article since I agree with it for the most part. Over the past 20 years I've done progressively less and less business in the US or partnered with US companies.
There is one advantage that the US business environment has and that is it's relatively low level of government regulation. That has played a significant part in the current problem but also allows the rapid maneuverability that is required when adjustments have to be made.
The US domestic focused businesses will fail or recognise that they have to look outward and adjust. Government won't really have much to do with that change.
It can be rather amazing to see what can happen when one's back is up against the wall.

Before the Moderator closes this hopelessly rambling off topic thread, I just have to get a word in about inflation. Fuel has NEVER been cheap.

The attached chart will be a shock to you when you realized that we have always paid between 2 and 3 dollars for a gallon of fuel. When you adjust that $.85 price from years ago with inflation and dollar devaluation, you are right back at $2.50 or more. Our price sensitivity is a matter of perception. The prices in Europe are what really scare me. GW.

prices in europe can't scare me anymore - i've no car and no yacht

Don´t tell anyone, but it is cheaper here today than when I was a kid...

how old're you?? minus 30 years??

no really - when where the prices higher than today?

The inflation here during the last century was 4% per year on average, fluctuating between 0 and 12 %. Our government is trying to keep the pace by adding taxes on fuel, now also the CO2 tax (thanks to Mr Gore), but the price compared to our buying power is lower than before. Not much, but no reason to complain as most cars and boats also has a better mileage today..

Beyond Inflation

I don't know about all of these 'adjusted figures'...sounds like a lot of 'spin' to me...like we get from our politicians nowadays.
...more Bush economics

I know crude was $22.50-23.00 in 2002, 2003. Now its $90-100 in 2008. Four to five fold increase in 5-6 years....sounds like a lot more than just inflation to me.

Huge transfer of wealth to a few countries that don't really contribute to the quality of life nor the technologies of this modern world...they just happen to possess lots of this black stuff under their soil.

....from Wikipedia


The price of standard crude oil on NYMEX was under $25/barrel in September 2003, and with inflation adjustments had remained below this mark since the mid 1980s. A series of events led the price to reach over $60 by August 11, 2005, surpass $75 in the summer of 2006, fall to between $50 and $60/barrel in the early part of 2007, then rise steeply, reaching $92/barrel by October 2007 and $99.29/barrel for December futures in New York on November 21, 2007[1]. On January 3, 2008, oil prices had an all-time peak at $100.05 per barrel. [2]

It remains to be seen if the rising trend will become a long plateau or continue to rise steadily. Prices of $100 2007 dollars are equal to the inflation adjusted maximum of 1980, which was $95-100/ barrel in mid 2007 dollars[3]. This has contributed to fears of an economic recession similar to that of the early 1980s.

.....more graphs, etc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_increases_of_2004_and_2005

This should generate a few comments, in 1965 I got my first car and with what I was making it cost me about 2 hours’ wages to fill the car. At today's prices and with what I make today I can fill the car for less than an hour's wages. So based on the current average salary of a boater compared to the average salary back then are we really worse off today than we were than?

Yes, but you were a teenager then, and just starting up on the salary scale. What about the teenager today (those that aren't spoided by their parents), and/or the minimum wage earner raising a child or two??

There is a tiny possibility that the U.S. will experience a nasty little 2008 recession, early '70s vintage.
Europe feels it, too.
China's Shanghai Index, recently on a real tear, takes a deep dive.
Same for India's over-bought Sensex.

Result: sub-$75 USD oil.

Remember the Asian monetary crisis less than ten years ago?

Fearless prediction: gas in the two-buck range in the U.S. as a Christmas present this year, with folks laughing at all the Prius drivers.

Put this in your time capsule. Whoever gets closest (I bet $2.09) wins a prize.

Price at the pump specifically where in the US? There's quite a range across your country. Hmmm Thursday Dec 25 2008...

The station I used a lot here was at $3.09 two weeks ago but today is at $2.80 for a gallon. I still say they will regress for awhile and then no matter the price per barrel go back up by saying there is a shortage of production capacity in the refineries or something else not related to the price of crude. They have a history of going up, people complain, they drop back and people accept the higher prices as they slowy creep back up. Then when people, Congress, or the press complain they fall back a little and then do the creep again. They have been playing this game of raising prices this way since the so called shortages of the 70s. I don't think you will see $2.09 a US gallon ever again

Recession or Depression

"Nasty little recession", I would only hope so, but as I wrote back in posting #75, we have the gathering of the 'perfect storm' with big energy price increases, housing market failure, lost of manufacturing, and the coming lost of a great portion of creative IT. We need to get some different kool-aid to drink.

Today I wrote some friends and disbelievers
Recession or Depression

Opps, I just remembered this other thread so I posted the discussion there
http://www.yachtforums.com/forums/56290-post82.html

Today, I filled 2 six gallon tanks for the Whaler. It cost me $42.00. When this thread started 4 years ago, it cost a little over $20.00 to fill up. There's not too many of us powerful enough to stop this rising tide, but collectively, maybe we can make a difference with our purchases. In the meantime, here's some fuel funnies...