56M Perini S/Y Bayesian Sinks During Palermo Storm

Well, the speculation statement is a disclaimer, we are not in the official Accident Investigation Business and with this being a very public forum….
In other words some guests or newspaper journalists surfing this page should see the Speculation Disclaimer and leave it at that and leave it right here instead of copy, past and publish on their own platforms.

The side garage door left open, leaves me perplexed, as Bayesian is reported to be resting on its starboard area.
If the water which sank her came through that door, then the yacht would naturally swing down to port side, and I do not know of natural force which can tip it to the other side.
Also in the video (not 100% decipherable), when we see the mast swinging a bit, it looks also move to starboard.

I'm gonna stay at metric system for this one.
Equipment number for Bayesian should be around 139.
That means that she should/was carrying 2 anchors of at least 390kg each (she had 2x 430kg), chain combined at least 275 meters (don't know how much was on her), and chain diameter of 20,5mm (Ordinary steel - Grade 1) or 17,5mm (High-strenght steel - Grade 2). She had Grade 2 chain with a diameter of 24mm.

TL: DR: Chains combined onboard S/Y Bayesian are/were at least 10 shots.

Today Italian newspapers are reporting the Captain is under investigation for manslaughter.
(La Republica and Palermo)

'Bayesian thinking is a way to make decisions using probability. It starts with initial beliefs (priors) and changes them when new evidence comes in (posterior). This helps in making better predictions and decisions based on data. It's crucial in fields like AI and statistics where accurate reasoning is important.' - Mirriam Webster. We are missing data here until the hull is examined.
I was a large sailing yacht skipper for 30 years and suffered a knockdown at sea when we were motoring into a 10 knot wind and into almost calm sea. We were hit by straight line winds from the beam and healed about 80 degrees. The amount of damage the boat took was amazing, but the engine room air intakes were only partially dipped into sea water which ended with a couple of bucket full of salt water ingress. The intakes for Bayesian are fairly high up on the superstructure but a full knockdown would flood the ER resulting in full loss of power. Also take a look at the salon: https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-22774/bayesian-photos.htm. There are a couple of works of art that would be powerful projectiles for the nearby windows. I believe this will be found a simple knock down, which caused either glass failure or a electric motor or genset hurled through the hull. I have also sailed bare poles surfing at the borderline of control in 70 knots of wind. There is plenty of windage on this boat to knock her down and keep her there for minutes...thats all it takes.

I wonder if the builders all encompassing statements had any bearing on that decision.

Detailed remarks and observations from Stephen Edwards (the former captain of Bayesian) on the mast, ballast, stability and hull openings for Bayesian are contained within the attached PDF. The pages have been snipped from the PDF and are displayed below.

PDF supplied by YF member Norseman.

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More info for the interested:

https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/23/did-social-trends-lead-to-yacht-tragedy/

He obviously doesn't offer any opinions much less any conclusions. But, there are several facts about the ship's design that explain a lot of things. These comments as well as the characterization of the meteorological conditions from the Italian Air Force (namely an absence of advance warning of severe weather) go a considerable way towards undermining the reflexive blame the CEO of the Italian Sea Group laid almost immediately on the crew. It turns out that if you lay a superyacht over for a period of time, bad things happen.