Real Estate: Is Palm Beach the New Yachting Capital?

Just throwing this out for discussion... is Palm Beach becoming the new (U.S.) yachting capital?

Marinas seem to be going up faster than condos in Palm Beach. I’m seeing more large yachts, in greater numbers than ever before. While there are no marinas quite the size of Bahia Mar, the sheer numbers of new docks and capacity seems to be outpacing Ft. Lauderdale.

Certainly, Ft. Lauderdale has the greatest number of repair & refit facilities. It also has an elaborate canal system throughout residential areas, but if we're counting marinas (for long term docking, live aboard, etc), it looks like Palm Beach is catching up... or maybe surpassing?

Are we in the midst of a paradigm shift?

I hear ya! Have to admit, South Florida blends together into one very long, very flat... shopping center!

From a distance perspective, the two cities are approximately 50 miles apart, but the driving time varies greatly by the number of traffic accidents in between... or mini-skirts broke down on the interstate!

Sorry Arnie! I didn't take any show pics, although I usually take 100's of interior/exterior pics on the boats we'll be doing feature reviews on. The rest of the time, I'm usually talking with builders, touring the boats and taking notes. A lot of the pics I take aren't suited for publishing, because they are small details I use for writing reference later on.

However... there were a couple of interesting new yachts at the Palm Beach show and they will become features on YF soon!

Real estate prices have soared beyond the means of most mortals in South Florida, but this is true for many other parts of the country as well. In recent months, some air has begun to escape from the bubble and sellers are coming down, ever-so-slightly, off their ambitious (ridiculous) asking prices.

There are a number of compounding scenarios that should ultimately lead to a further reduction in home prices. I've kept close tabs on this for awhile and I'm fortunate to have access to statistics that aren't readily available to most.

Here's a few...

1. Inventory. "RMLSFL" is the multiple listing service for Palm Beach, Martin & St. Lucie counties. This is not only a computerized MLS service, it also offers amazing statistics... stats that most Realtors don't want buyers to see.

In September 2004, this area reached the lowest recorded number of homes for sale in years. The number of active listings were approx. 18,000 for this tri-county area (note: this service also includes a few listings in Broward & Dade counties too, but a relatively small number, as these counties have their own MLS service). Sept. '04 was a time when you had to stand in line to see an Open House and sellers had multiple contracts within days.

Over the course of the following 10 months, the number of active listings doubled to approx. 34,000. Beginning in July/August of 2005, the number of listings began rising as home sales began to slow. Over the course of the past 7-8 months, the number of active listings has soared to over 86,000. Essentially, we have quadrupled the inventory... and there are very few buyers to be found.

2. Insurance. Several leading insurance companies have pulled out of Florida. Yesterday, the news reported another major insurer, who covers 140,000+ homes statewide, is canceling all policies. Most property owners, especially near the coastal areas, have been forced to take insurance through the state-run Citizens Insurance program, which is costly. Over the past few months, Citizens has doubled (and in some cases tripled) premiums because the company is nearly bankrupt. Insurance is not only becoming hard to get, it is very expensive.

3. Rising Interest Rates. This will have a compounding effect on home values. It is estimated that 50% of Florida is held on spec. A good majority of this number are condos, which are DRASTICALLY over-priced. In many cases, investors (flippers) have used no interest, adjustable, or negative amortizing loans to acquire properties. As rates rise, values will decrease, and consumer purchasing power will be reduced. It is likely we will reach a point where sellers will begin to bail-out at any cost.

4. The Float. There are a large number of adjustable rate mortgages reaching maturity this year. These mortgages will need to roll-over to fixed, fully amortizing loans. The payments will be much more expensive. For investors who have not been able to sell property, this will be an added strain. For those that occupy properties... the same.

5. 2006 Hurricane Season. There's no crystal ball, but it's a pretty good bet the National Weather Service knows a little more about cycles and trends than the rest of us. As we all know, they are forecasting more storms, with increased strength over the next 10 years. If Florida gets hit again this year, a few people that thought 2004-2005 was a fluke... might become better convinced and head for the hills. This will add to the selling pressure, which will ultimately lead to a further weakening in home prices.

6. Personal Finance. Credit card companies began doubling minimum monthly payments in 2006. Also, bankruptcy laws were recently re-vamped and this is no longer an option. With personal debt at record levels, it is probable this will effect home values too. There are many homeowners who have cashed out home equity, many that have purchased with little down and worst of all... loose lending practices by banks over the past few years. There's a ton of home owners with shaky credit.

I'm not trying to paint a gloom & doom scenario. It is time to return to some sense of normalcy (is that a word?). Quite simply, the pendulum has begun to swing in the opposing direction... and hopefully balance will follow.

In re-reading my post, I realized I didn't answer your question Arnie.

I'm not buying right now. Of the areas I'm watching (diligently, I might add), I'm seeing price drops of around $5k to $10k monthly. Of course, as you get up into the stratospherically priced properties, the price drops are larger.

It appears, and common sense dictates, waterfront properties are holding up the best. Still, I'm seeing a large number of waterfront homes fall through the $1 million level. A few months ago, the best you could hope to find is a tear-down for $1 million. Now, I'm seeing many more desirable properties in this range.

The way I look at it... each month I wait, I'm banking money based on falling prices. Maybe I'm wrong, but I simply can't afford these prices, so I have no choice but to wait, hope and pray.

Yes! This is a very good point. Many homeowners are hanging on to their properties because if they sell and buy something of equivilent value, their taxes will nearly triple. This has been one of the primary reasons in the run-up of prices. Not enough people willing to sell, coupled with an increasing number of people migrating to Florida.

On the flip side... if legislation is passed, this would mean an increasing number of homes would come up for sale. If supply and demand rules, do you think this would cause prices to drop further, or would it stabilize current prices?

That's pretty impressive. You're all the way up in Connecticut and are aware of the Riviera scenario. I believe you are right! Michael Bach from Rybovich knows alot about this and he's one of the people that is helping to shape the shift. He posted earlier in the thread. Maybe he can expand on this.