Hurricane Dean

Thanks for the update on Barbados. I was wondering if there was any damage. I have an ownership interest at The Crane. I always look forward to visiting your beautiful island.

Guys,

Capt. Tom suggested a thread on Dean to keep captains & crews abreast of what's happening should they loose access to other sources of information. This worked for me 2 years ago, when my PDA/cell phone became my connection to the world after we lost power, TV, etc. YF members posted storm tracks and position for us while the eye passed overhead. Reference the following thread on Hurricane Wilma...

http://www.yachtforums.com/forums/y...yachtforums-will-offline.html?highlight=wilma

I'm moving the Hurricane Dean thread to the General Discussion area...

Looks like Jamaica will miss a direct hit, but will still be bad as they are on the "wrong" side of the storm.
Anyone in Grand Cayman or in the Yucatan Peninsula better watch out and get ready.

Interlude...

Dis-informazion jes come mah way mon: Cayman Islands gonna get hit real hard.

Aye bin readin up about them "spezial regulashuns" in the small print...did you all know that for example, the big boss Queen Elizabeth can commandeer all "Red Ensign" vessels into service if she considers it necessary? Jes like that?!

Well, since the guvnor is otherwize busy, aye here am issuing the command to all Cayman Islands registered vessels and yachts right now, to make full speed here, wherever they are at this precise moment!

They should bring with them lots of blankets, tents, mosquito nets, water and foodstuffs. In addition, 1 case each of French champagne, Bordeaux wine, and foie gras etc. per metre length of the yacht. Aye shall personally diztribute these last essential suppliez to the most needy.

Here comes another one?

So, with the exception of those unfortunate souls in the Greater Yucatan region about to get whacked, the rest of us get to figuratively watch the Major Bogeyman (Dean) ride off into the sunset, while behind us, up creeps the midget mugger (Invest 92L).

Invest 92L (an arcane NOAA designation for 'Something Worth Paying Attention To'), roughly 23N, 57W, potentially, per the Canadian Meteorological Centre model, will develop into a system that will bear watching, especially if you are near the South/Central Florida coast where landfall is predicted.

Hurricane Rita began like this, BTW.

Here's the link:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_model.html

Loren,

You are right..
But check out Andrew '92... Also similar at a certain point.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#andrew

Here is a cool NOAA site to pull up historical storm tracks by name.
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Well, hats off to the forecasters on Dean; they had the storm track accurately pegged from early on with the computer models. Quite remarkable. Let's hope it helped better prepare the Yucatan for this monster.

Loren and others,
That other system, 92L has basically fallen apart and not being reported on as a disturbance. It will be more of a tropical wave and bring showers to south Florida on Wed/Thur. But keep an eye on the coast of Africa. These waves and disturbances are marching off the coast like soldiers. Peak hurricane season is Sept 10/11.

Looks like you're right, Tom.
The forecasters make specific mention today of 'the reliable models' making that wave out to be just a blob of rain for S. Fla Wed/Thurs.

That lone 'unreliable' Canadian CMC (known to some bloggers on a certain weather site as Can't Model Crap) still insists on it's 850 Vorticity validity; see link below:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007082200&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

As I slowly connect the dots, I have come to the conclusion that unless the GFS, GFDL, or UKMET models (better all three at the same time) pick up on a disturbance, it is likely suspect or, in more technical terms, hooey.

I am happier than a clam that all is quiet in our little slice of paradise.