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Help me understand diesel prices

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by Capt Ralph, Nov 3, 2022.

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  1. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    If the U S is low on fuel, going to run out of diesel in a month, then how is this news from Reuters happening?
    Without diesel, my boat is worthless....

    U.S. Crude Exports to Asia at Record High
    Reuters

    November 3, 2022

    By Arathy Somasekhar and Muyu Xu

    HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Deliveries of U.S. crude oil to Asia are set to touch a record 1.8 million barrels per day this month, Kpler shipping data showed, as demand climbed on a widening discount to global oil.

    Refiners in China, India and South Korea are returning as big U.S. crude oil buyers after several months of scooping up cheap Russian barrels. Asia’s renewed buying reflects soaring demand for crude to produce diesel fuel and comes as Europe continued to stock up in the aftermath of Western sanctions on Russian purchases.

    Overall, U.S. crude exports last week touched a weekly record of 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd), boosted by higher shale production. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at a nearly $9 a barrel discount to global Brent, compared to a $6 discount at the start of September. A wider discount makes U.S. oil more affordable to foreign buyers.

    South Korea is set to import a record 619,000 barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. crude oil, according to Refinitiv, becoming the month’s top Asian importer of U.S. crude.

    China will draw at least 450,000 bpd, its highest since December 2020 while India’s demand is forecast to be the highest since March, Refinitiv data showed. Both are rising in the face of higher tanker rates up about 40% on some segments in October.

    China’s refineries are stepping up production with the end of maintenance overhauls and receipt of higher fuel export quotas to lift sagging merchandise exports.

    There is also strong global demand for diesel that is encouraging refiners across the region to add production runs, said Matt Smith, analyst at data firm Kpler.

    “With Asian refiners set to ramp up refinery runs, with China’s sizeable product export quota, and with OPEC’s core producers dialing back on output, demand for U.S. crude is strong,” he said.The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies this month began cutting output by 2 million bpd on fears of lower demand amid slowing economies.

    U.S. oil production was 11.98 million bpd in August, the latest month of official figures, as producers raise activity after pandemic cutbacks.

    “Despite rising freight costs, U.S. crude is still economical for Asian buyers, and the buying interest would remain as long as the arbitrage window is still open,” a trader said.
  2. Zud

    Zud Senior Member

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    Because the "Green" Govt has no interest in allowing you to burn deadly diesel at a fair market rate. Besides, yacht owners are all wealthy anyway. LOL
  3. Slimshady

    Slimshady Senior Member

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    Trying to figure out what is real vs imagined. Spoke with my fuel company today and she said there are days when they can't get fuel at the "rack" in Port Everglades. They are a very large buyer and know the business well. Can't determine if this is from Tampa and Orlando getting shutdown from hurricane or from actual scarcity. Alot of customers are asking her the same questions. Should they be worried, start stock piling? What say the wise group?
  4. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    I be been debating this for the last couple of weeks. My personal boat is pretty full but the “office” is down to about 750 gallons (4000 capacity).

    been trying to make up my mind between going to refuel now on one engine or waiting another 2 weeks till the rebuilt is finished.

    anybody got the number for Ms Cleo to figure out what will happen in the next two weeks? Or maybe someone can lend me their crystal ball… or a deck of tarot cards :)

    two years ago on 7/13/20 I paid 1.99 a gallon for diesel… when I refilled my Hatteras on July, it was $5 a gallon.

    What most people don’t understand is that diesel prices have a massive impact on everything especially food. I m sure someone has done the math but a huge chunk of food prices is pretty much diesel. Whether it s to manufacture fertilizer or animal feed, delivering that to the farmers/ranchers…. Diesel for the farm equipment… trucking things to the packing houses and onto the final point of sale. Can’t be crying too much about putting diesel in our toys but the impact of food is massive
  5. Slimshady

    Slimshady Senior Member

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    I called Ms. Cleo, she didn't pick up.
    For me it's more then just the boat, its all our work trucks, our tenants trucks, ect. The country runs on diesel and without it we're in trouble. Can't tell if it's pre election BS or more substantial.
    Will those fresh rebuilds run on electricity?
  6. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    But why is it going to Asia?
    Why are we not using it here in the U S?

    Is it truly; The whims of the (green) few out weigh the needs of the many??



    Last edited: Nov 4, 2022
  7. classic

    classic Member

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    It could be they are stocking it up in this part of the world for something we don't like to talk about yet in the news.
    get my drift.
    ;):(
  8. Barry Jones

    Barry Jones New Member

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    Oil refining is a strange thing. One of the reasons the US is shipping oil overseas is that a lot of the domestic refineries are set up to refine "heavy sour" crude. Which is great for most of the crude pumped out of normal wells these day tends toward the Heavy sour crude spectrum. The problem is that a refinery set up for heavy sour crude refining cannot refine light sweet crude and most of the oil from fracking tends to be light sweet crude and the domestic light sweet crude refineries are maxed out so the crude they don't have capacity for tends to get shipped overseas to refineries that can refine light sweet crude oil. As for diesel, right now the US is refining MORE diesel than it uses but the spot market price for diesel is higher overseas than here so lately it has been sold overseas (Europe mostly). Distributors and storage facilities in the Northeast supplied the diesel that was shipped to Europe (Bostis closer to Antwert than Houston so it is cheaper to ship from the Northeast than the refinery coast). As I understand it there is a lot of diesel in the pipelines headed North but it takes 3 or so weeks to arrive (pipeine speeds are around 4-5 miles per hour), Florida(and the Southeast coastal areas in general) on the other hand is not supplied by pipeline but by tanker and I am guessing that some POL ports in FL were disrupted by Ian. So long story short, diesel stocks are low because energy speculators bought low in the US and have been selling high in Europe which drew down US stocks. Sal Marchagliano on the YouTube channel "What's up with Shipping" has a great video on this whole thing...

  9. Fishtigua

    Fishtigua Senior Member

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    Yep, Europe is buying every last drop of oil and gas it can get it's hands on. This is all down to Putin and his goons going to war for political gain.

    Big Oil, which are not controlled by the White House (no matter what the loony TV channels tell you) are just scalping every cent they can. Sadly it really is just a play by big energy firms and countries, Iran and Saudi Arabia are doing very well by cutting back production and keeping prices high. It's the same all over the World. Here in the UK we are paying about $6.43 a US gallon for marine diesel at the fuel dock. BP just posted a profit of $8.2bn for the last quarter. That's right, just this Quarter.
    d_meister likes this.
  10. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Crude exports to Asia are incredibly high. This admin has "emptied" the strategic reserve, selling considerable quantities of crude to China. That news a bit dated, but it takes time to get that oil out of the reserve and transact the delivery, the point at which the statistics catch the movement.

    Why Asia/China? Don't get this thread started on politics, but follow the money.
  11. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    I made the decision to bight and fill. Choice came down to full tanks now or perhaps struggling to get it amidst rationing if cold hits the country hard too soon, and heating demand jolts the limited supply.

    I also had to bring her south, so I paid $7 to leave New York, $6 to replenish in Charleston, but then $4.60 off the truck at home, so I was also averaging my hold down in cost.
  12. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    The exports of crude and exports of diesel/cost of diesel are really two different conversations. Yes, the energy shortage in Europe is certainly having an impact on our diesel prices as well as supply density.

    Crude is leaving in significant volume right now and being added to China's strategic reserve.

    Add, for the record, Keystone would be complete by now and providing huge volumes of supply to the domestic system.
  13. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Where in the world are these whims actually working?
  14. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    High fossil fuel prices is simply what the current administration wants. They have been very clear about this, many times, the latest being from the president himself this week end when he said during a speech: “ no more drilling. There is no more drilling. I haven’t (unintelligible) any more drilling”

    you can look up the video for your self on YouTube. I don’t want to post the link as it was only picked up by some political groups

    in any case the message is clear.
  15. Hatterized

    Hatterized Member

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    the great secret kept from "we the people" the only sensible answers to any fuel related prices that arise hopefully can be partially answered after tomorrow night.....:confused:
    Pipeline FLOW and Frack ON fellow mariners....:cool:
    Rerm likes this.