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Don't overreact to a little prosperity....

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by olderboater, Jan 27, 2015.

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  1. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    We tend as a society to overreact to the ups and downs of life. I've read three articles in the past couple of days that individually all seem ok, but combined may reflect a trend that could be dangerous if not controlled. The first was Sea Ray reopening the Merritt facility based on initial sales of the L Class. The second was about offshore center consoles and talking about their sales having risen above even pre-recession levels. Then the third was Marine Max's plans to add 100 sales people. Yes, that's over 54 stores but still. If that is overly optimistic then represents further repressed earnings for all their sales personnel.

    That's without the number of marinas in South Florida undergoing extensive renovations and upgrades while others have been on the market for sale for two or three years.

    I just hope the industry doesn't repeat it's previous mistakes.
  2. Fish Catcher Jim

    Fish Catcher Jim Member

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    Olderboater,
    Yea I would hope that as well. Every day in my promotion box I get 2 to 4 email adds for all these new models and designs of boats from a to z. They are spending the big bucks making these high end boats from puddle jumpers to that bay aint big enough to turn my boat around in.

    I had no idea that the market for these boats was such a high demand and if not then what are they thinking ? I took a couple of video tures of boats from 55 ft to 70 foot and they looked more like some high end top dollar resort and I would expect that on some of those 100 pluss ft boats but wow !! What a trip !!!
    Jim
  3. ychtcptn

    ychtcptn Senior Member

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    I have heard the big Center Console guys, like Yellow Fin, Sea Vee and other high end builders are flat out right now, and these boats are at the top end. There is a smaller lesser known CC builder in Miami who is so busy that if you want his 22' you would have to wait until late summer, in fact I was told he pulled out of MIBS as he was too busy!
    Yachting has always been boom to bust, I see no reason that it will not happen again, it's just a matter of when? As any business the companies with a strong balance sheet and good product will prevail.
  4. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    Take a close look at that market, and you might see trouble brewing. The middle class has been priced out of boating. The rich are buying every luxury they can find, and those who just have salt in their veines are buying the smaller boats and CCs, but the rich are finicky. When they drop out of the market again they're going to leave some big holes in many pockets. The middle class doesn't buy a fancy new boat every two years, but they're the backbone of the industry. Right now the boating market is a lot like a fancy woman. Very pretty hair and nails, but a weak back and morals. She won't make it through the tuff times.

    As for hiring boat salespeople, that's a no-brainer. They cost you next to nothing except when they sell. Of course they'll never make money when you have 10 salespeople handling the business of one, but it's great for the company.

    P.S. I've noticed some 'born to fail' businesses getting rediculous amounts of venture capital recently. I was discussing this with a person I highly respect, and he told me that there is such a huge amount of money looking for something to invest in that crazy ideas are having no problem getting financed. He predicts that a lot of people are going to be losing a lot of money in the not too distant future.
  5. Scallywag

    Scallywag Member

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    I'm a young guy, but I'm pretty good at seeing patterns. In my adult life I've seen and been a part of the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, the financial bubble, and now the dollar bubble. There were bubbles before that and one bubble is always shifted into the next by the powers that be to smooth things over. Some of these bubbles have been quite a ride, and others not so much, but they all end up making me sick. Another bubble is about to burst.

    I'm all about thinning the herd and survival of the fittest in a free market, but it seems the herd of builders have been thinned repeatedly through all these bubble cycles. Good companies have been acquired by large conglomerates only to end up an empty shell of what they used to be. Everybody loses when jobs are lost from investors and executives down to the skilled laborers and subcontractors.

    Maybe the builders are just "gettin' while the gettin's good" and just cranking them out for the upper crust to procure. Hopefully they stuff some cash in their coffers for the famine that is about to come.

    And you're right, the fit and finish of 60 - 70' MY is now identical to the 100' crowd. There is no upper-middle class, let alone middle class to cater to. Even down here in the Keys I drive by boats with tripple 7 557s' hanging off the transom. Plenty of $500k skate boards being sold.
  6. ColdFax

    ColdFax New Member

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    I think the companies that build yachts are a lot like the yachts themselves, always for sale. Scuttlebutt has it that Gulf Coast Shipyard is selling their yacht division (Trinity) or at least the last two unfinished hulls and technology to Korean or Chinese company. The new owners of Gulf Coast want to concentrate on commercial boats. On that same line, they are negotiating with the original owner of Allied Marine for him to buy IYC. The Brokerage has for years operated in the red, and does not fit into the investors plans. Shocking to see that the lead investment partner in the Gulf Coast Shipyard Group has listed for sale his 43m Holland Jachtbouw with Fraser Yachts and not his own company, IYC. That is the giveaway that it is time to sell.
  7. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Nothing surprises me with Sabates. And there really is nothing for them to sell in Trinity as it's pretty much been out of business so now it's time to pass the name to someone else, if they can. They've been concentrating on commercial, among other reasons as that's the only business they've had. Gulf Coast hasn't even had Trinity on their website.

    IYC was pretty much a game anyway. It was "I'll form this company to market and run all the Trinity sales through it so I'll make money on every boat." Just one problem. No sales. It was just part of the whole convoluted agreement to keep them afloat at the time.

    Yes, Gulf Coast is another one that fell into the hands of investment bankers. And they buy always with the full intent of selling in the future.
  8. AffrayedKnot

    AffrayedKnot Senior Member

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    Sabates II is gone from the whole enterprise. After a very public ruckus between Sabates II and Frank Grzeszczak in the IYC tent during the last FLIBS; separation was the best course. Grzeszczak is the second top earner at IYC, after Mark Elliott. Lose either, and operating losses may be insurmountable. IYC took its greatest hit with the loss of Michael Mahan. His Worth Ave Yachts, may already be writing the obituary for IYC. It could be well that Sabates II affected Mr. Mahan’s hasty departure from IYC and caused the new Worth Ave. venture.

    It is unfathomable that Littlejohn would hire Fraser to market Calliope. http://www.fraseryachts.com/Sale/sale_gallery.aspx?YachtID=Y1588_MC_MC

    Seeing her (T CENTRAL T22) next to IYC offerings at the Monaco Show in 2014, and flying Fraser banners and colors diminishes years of hard earned IYC gravitas and credibility. It’s tantamount to a close range center-mass strike with 00 buckshot; straight to the heart of the Brand value.

    And; an Asian built Trinity? What will that do to the Trinity brand and the value of the current fleet?
  9. NEO56

    NEO56 Member

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    Boom and Bust....the boating industry seems to be more volatile than the Pork Belly market. The sheep that believe what the government tells everyone, how great the economy is doing, figure why not? The first thing people do is run out and buy a boat, Duck Key is thick with triple engine CC's these days, but like everything else hindsight is 20/20. When the market crashes (and it will very soon) and everyone's 401k, and IRA's drop 50% overnight, boats are the first thing to get kicked to the curb. Those with a Contrarian attitude (and the money) can pick up incredible deals on smaller boats "when black Friday comes". This is true up to about the 75 foot level. Boats larger than that are owned by people with deep pockets who can withstand any downturn in the market.
    After all the booms and busts, you'd think Builders would take a defensive posture, protect their order books and stretch out their production so they could continue to not only keep building, but maintain their quality workers. Surely, you have to be a fairly savvy business man/woman to run a boat building business successfully, why haven't these individuals learned to spot this trend reversal from a mile away?
  10. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    Searay re-opening Merritt Island, they should've never closed Merritt Island in the first place. They had a factory there for decades. As for Marinemax adding 2 people per store, that's not really a big increase in employees either.......the center console market.....that's a different ball game....they're EVERYWHERE, every dealer here has wall to walls of them. Some marina's in South Florida marinas were way overdue for a facelift....like Pier 66...... Miami Beach Marina could definately use at least their electric updated.......
  11. Yachtguymke

    Yachtguymke Senior Member

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    Brokerage market seems to be pretty strong. Lots of manufacturers out there with plenty of new models to choose from. 100' plus is always there no matter what the current market trends are. The fact is that there are plenty of people out there that have enjoyed the lifestyle that have been out of it for awhile. I am seeing more and more of these people wanting to get back out on the water and enjoy that lifestyle once again. I've seen a huge influx of buyers for all sizes and models of boats in the last 10 weeks, especially the CC markets. There is a ton to choose from in all price ranges but very little new boat inventory in the marketplace. The last CC I sold took 3 months to manufacture.
  12. ColdFax

    ColdFax New Member

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    I guess there is a difference between a Yacht Broker and a Yacht/Boat Dealer. The Dealer, is the one investing and holding inventory, with skin in the game. The Broker is the one who enjoys a piece of another's pie, without the burden/risk of owning his own pie. Two different business models.

    Years ago when Mr. Tomsich owned Allied Marine, the company operated as a Dealer, inventorying such brands as Tiara, Luhrs, Maxum, Azimut, Buddy Davis, Baia, Pro-Line, and Bertram. The company was successful and profitable.

    Maybe Mr. Tomisch hopes to reshape IYC into a profitable business as a Dealer enterprise, rather than a Brokerage. From the opinions posted above, the Dealer option is the favorable trend.
  13. lovinlifenc

    lovinlifenc Member

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  14. Boat Owner

    Boat Owner Member

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  15. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    In other news, they mowed down the iconic Miami Herald building on biscayne bay, and Miami Herald is manufacturing/printing newspapers in Bertrams old Miami factory......LOLOL