Boats sold last year popping up this year

That's why I've been telling people who are shopping to wait. It was easy to see this coming. By fall there will be a ton of inventory.

This may also be flippers buying and trying to re-sell for a quick profit. I see this a lot with ATV’s and smaller ski boats with these crazy markets. Why not yachts?

Basic rule of every market is buy low, sell high. People who bought last year and are selling this year are doing the opposite.

Curious what you base this assertion on? Nearly every market remains a very strong seller’s market. Housing, RV’s, auto, etc. All very strong seller’s markets. I haven’t seen anything to suggest the yacht market is any different. Please share your data source.

My data source is 60+ years of watching boating cycles. You used the term yachts. I used the term boats. I'm not talking about the over 80' market. The rich are still looking for things to spend their money on. I'm talking about the boats bought by doctors, lawyers, electricians, not corporate executives. Last summer boat manufacturers couldn't keep up with demand cause people had their vacation money and nothing to spend it on since they couldn't go anywhere. But they could go out with their families on a boat. Now people can travel again. They have school, sports, shopping and even Disney to spend their money and time on. Some (the smart ones) see it coming and are unloading while they can still get their price, but most have already paid their summer dockage. So they'll keep their boats, but not use them near as much as they did last summer. As winter storage comes due they'll look to unload them. Housing is (hopefully) an appreciating asset, and even RVs and autos don't suck money out of your wallet like boats.

Dealers can't keep used boats/yachts in stock since the waiting period for new ones is a year to two years, and used inventory is non existent. I've seen several $1-2 million yachts sell in 1-2 days of being on the market. One of them was a 1 year old 60' MY and the buyer wanted a new one but wasn't waiting 1.5 years for one. His 4 year old 52' sold a week after being on the market too.

I do think there will be a lot of nearly new boats on the market, and prices easing, but not yet.....once warranties start ending and the real maintenance begins...in another year or two.

I appreciate your experience and perspectives and respectfully disagree. As long as interest rates stay historically low, housing markets are strong, stock market continues its run the boat and yacht market will stay strong. The jobs market will start booming thus further generating demand. I’m not suggesting this will all last long term, but at least near term (this year and likely next at least). Raw materials and manufacturing will continue to struggle to keep up with demand which will further prop up the market for awhile at least.

Hmmmm, I know a few things about RV's and they can provide some spectacular depreciation if you don't watch out, especially the 2M plus segment. And shop rates, IF you can find someone to work on them, together with parts have gone up a lot giving boating cost a run for its money. (pun intended).

Demand is higher now than it was at anytime last year. that I feel I am in a position to say is fact. The opinion of the timing of the fall is fun speculation. But then again saying the market is going to go down eventually has about as much wisdom as saying the market will go up eventually. Both, eventually are true.
There is so much cash floating around its NUTS. Our little experiment of printing money and saying inflation was coming was getting old in the tooth with no real effect. All we had to do was switch Billions for Trillions all along. I wonder how many people know how many billions are in a trillion?
Last year basically every business owner got 2 months of payroll tax free. Crazy time to be alive.

Yea

Yeah I was real hesitant to include that, but on the one I owned for a short time I made money.

Business owner yes, but what about the guy working for him. That's the guy who bought the $100k, $200k, $400K as well as the $20K and $50K boats. They used the money they were going to spend on vacations, kids athletics, nights out. The surge in sales was due to the pandemic, and boating being one of the only things a family could safely do. Every day now as more people get vaccinated they're moving back to regular life and have a lot of other choices. I know 2 families that went on vacation in the past 2 weeks and 3 more going away in the next 2. For the past year before that I heard of nobody going anywhere for leisure. Yes the orders for boats has been hot and heavy since last summer right up to now, but it's going to cool fast when people have other, cheaper entertainment available. A lot of the people who bought last summer will hardly use their boats this summer cause they'll be at soccer games, movies, away on vacation. Next fall they'll be looking at annual maintenance, winter storage and monthly mortgage payments for a toy they didn't use.

None of what you said in any way counters what I said. What part of my statement did you disagree with?
I do disagree with your statement "The surge in sales was due to,,,,,," What surge in boat sales are you talking about? Are you referencing the 12% increase in sales which was 2% over the projection for 2020? That is no surge. Demand outstripped supply that held down the sales. That got headlines. But I do find it a bit misguided to suggest that because we had a 12% increase in sales there is a covid boat resale avalanche coming.
Before you blast off a response without digesting my thesis understand one last thing,,, there will be a correction, I don't argue that, every market does at some point. I am just suggesting one look at the 10 year trend of boat sales and understand its not covids fault we will have a correction.

You have a theory and I have a theory. If you're correct manufacturers need to increase production to match last year's sales levels. If I'm correct that will result in a lot of excess inventory and dropping prices. Guess we'll see next fall which theory pans out.

A lot of these boats are coming on the market so quickly also because owners are trading up. I have one owner that had a 62' Hampton flybridge, he's getting old now, so decided to downsize to a 50' express. Him and his wife run it themselves a lot. It took over a year to get, they took delivery 3 months ago and figured out real fast that this yacht is too small, so now he's trading that for a 55-60' express. I have other owners who bought their first yacht a 65' MY 4 months ago, they're now looking for a 90' MY. Right now the yachting market is very strong. Also keep in mind new yacht deliveries have been delayed 6-12 months (due to covid- either factory shut downs AND/OR waiting on parts to finish the yachts) causing a shortage in new yachts being delivered.

There are so many factors at play and anyone who thinks they have it all figured out is just deluding themselves. Long ago we heard a song "Spinning Wheel" and a very simple statement "What goes up must come down" and nothings changed. Only thing is we don't know when and if you bet on things reversing you will be right....eventually. Just no idea when.

I think some factors at play include:

-All the demand was not satisfied due to shortage of supply. Still demand out there, plus in spite of the buying there were still those waiting. Many didn't get their perfect boat and are already trading as Capt J points out. Some settled for what they could find and some just didn't know.

-The market for late model used still remains strong due to being stripped and so it's easier and less punitive than often to make a quick change.

-Builders still have extended waiting times and delays in meeting new boat demand.

-The Stock Market and the Business Market, both of which fuel a lot of luxury spending have not crashed yet. The stock market will fall as it always cycles, but until it does, the luxury market will remain strong.

-There were some buyers only buying for pandemic recreation. There are always some new buyers doing so on a whim and not long term participants. Unlike other times though, the resale market remains extremely strong.

-Governments throughout the world continue to spend. The time to pay the piper will come but hasn't yet. There's still an infusion of money. Wealthy know at some point they'll pay the price in higher taxes but they don't fear that. They think of what they've gotten as a short term break and the higher taxes as just a return to normal. It's not been long since they paid more so it's not as if it doesn't remain in recent memory.

I'll comment on another industry for a moment, hardware. Hardware sales were up 20-30% in 2020 in spite of everything going on. One would certainly expect it to then level off in 2021. Surely 2020 had some one time demand? No sign of it yet. But then look at new home purchases and pricing. Outrageously all are still up. Just look at the demand in Fort Lauderdale for $1 million dollar plus homes. Makes no sense. Everyone predicts prices will drop, but they haven't yet. Demand still exceeds supply.

I think 2020 pushed people to visit hardware stores and they liked them and continue to visit and shop. I think 2020 pushed people to buy boats and they liked them and continue to like boats.

I expect to see demand for boats continue above supply at least for all of 2021. Builders cannot make up for time lost. They were already running at or near their practical current capacity. Two months lost, they are lost forever. Getting back to prior levels of production was difficult enough but that's all they're doing. No increases. I do expect to see demand drop. I know it will. But it hasn't so far and I have no idea when it will and those betting on when it will happen will be wrong 9 out of 10 times and then when they are right will scream "I told you so."

That's not the part of the market where I see the downturn coming, although the 2nd case sounds like someone who came into money. To me that's a person who could be in a 130' or out of boating a year from now. The first case is more indicative of the problem I see coming. They're aging out of boating leaving the question of who will replace them. IMHO the problem is what will happen to those trade ins next year. Will they hold their current values if there's excess inventory on the market? For the past year it's been a seller's market. I think that will change next fall.

And your thoughts are as valid as anyone's. I have no idea when it will change, only know it will eventually. I don't personally think it will in 2021 but then I predict sports all the time and only occasionally am right.

This pandemic has caused LOTS of new boaters. A lot of semi-affluent people in the 25-40 year old segment that mainly did cruises and flew overseas, but found they couldn't. One friend gets a boat, they all then get boats and have made their own boating community. Mainly in the 20-35' segment, but they like it, they've found a new hobby and they're ready to trade up. Then they realize, there's a lot to explore, right here in the U.S and no need to go overseas. Now you can travel overseas but MANY hurdles to jump through, everyone needs multiple covid tests, if one person in the family fails (even a false positive) the entire trip is ruined, so not worth the trouble.

The current indication is that by Summer travel to Europe will be loosened up considerably for those fully vaccinated and 15 days beyond the second vaccination. Specific dates haven't been determined so the speculation is late June or July 1. It's much like the new Bahama rules on vaccinations. Doesn't change on land compliance requirements but greatly changes the task of getting there.