2009 Miami International Boat Show News

Normally on the first day of MIBS, a cold front comes through with it's freight of rainy, crummy, cooler weather--but not on today's opener which saw above average temps and a lot of Chamber of Commerce sunshine.

Parking up at the XX Street lot on North Beach (among many more, but this one's my fave, so tough schnikes, find your own) was a mere ten bucks. And, Lo! The first shuttle bus arrived shortly after the promised 9:00 AM start to get your intrepid reporter, in the company of a lovely Italian trade representative (the Italians are apparently here in force with their own dedicated tent-cum-bar & associated methods of business lubrication facilities near the Ramp 14 exit off Collins Avenue, coincidentally close to my own office-away-from-the-office)--ciao, Alexandra!--off to work in the saltmines known as the Brokerage Show along Collins.

There were tradespeople aplenty, but a dearth of 'civilians' until some time after the Food Court got up a full head of steam, as it were, (likely, a 100 calories per sniff of chicken, 'burgers, and more exotic fare being prepared along the boulevard a few hundred yards upwind from my vantage point...droool!) and mostly sighted were locals and an extraordinary amount of eye candy compared to normal years. If Capt Tom was not out there with Canon in hand, shame on him--this dwarfed the show (within the Show) of the past FLL version 11.08. As we (Tom & I) met and chatted a bit, I trust he will not disappoint.

From my observation venue, there was a rather sparse attendance of serious folk wishing to exchange the coin of the realm for the big stuff on the outer docks... until there was a noted paradigm shift (the Burger Effect?) after early afternoon when folks Not From Here ganged up on the poor Brokers hoping for a respite from the post-luncheon lethargy...

It is always amazing how there can be nothing... nothing... until everybody seemingly reads the same bulletin board, so to speak, and decides to earnestly go out and search for their dream vessel--and this sort of maybe-now's-the-time, seemed to occur during the latter hours of the First Day of the 2009 MIBS.

Reputable Marine Lenders, who [full disclosure] have been known to front an Adult Beverage to your reporter from time-to-time, have allowed that there is indeed multiple activity out there from $3M+ down to a mere quarter $M in the way of deals (all U.S. buyers) closing during the month of February, so perhaps the light at the end of the tunnel for the Marine Biz is not too far off.

I, for one, am ready.

Yes, but not endemic to the Boat Show....hotel room vacancies across the board--and along the Eastern Seaboard-- since prior to the FLL November Show have been way off.
I mean, $10.00 parking (as of this morning 2/12/09) for the MIA Show? I think those kinda rates take me back to a dozen years ago or so... even a cheapskate like me will think twice about hiking in from a mile away from our "secret freebie parking spot".

Day Two--Friday

Comes foggy (very rare for Miami's waterfront) & warm due to a front stalled north of the area, which eventually ushers in some delightfully drier air and perfect temps for walking the docks by afternoon.

Prospective buyer traffic was thin from our perspective as well as from other brokers who had plenty of time to wander the docks, yet the occasional deal is quietly getting done. The 58 Selene 'next door' was busy yesterday and today as well. Trawlers are like cute pooches--everybody has to stop for a look-see.

More numerous today are clients being escorted by salesfolk inspecting what might be the The Boat. For the indescisive buyer, this venue is perfect to quickly winnow out the chaff from the wheat, as it were, and to at least narrow the search. Consider the boat show to be an efficient use of time.

Our owner shuttled off to the Convention Center to look at "small 25-footers for the kids" and reported slack traffic there as well.

Shortly after 5:00, one of the booths along Ramp 14 (which is comprised primarily of booths) had some kind of shindig going. The services of our handy onboard corkscrew were required numerous times. Fully half the ramp, and the adjacent face dock--both ends--soon took on the look of an old-fashioned block party. While I cannot confirm this, it appeared that anyone who might've been a potential buyer in the immediate area at the time was likely swept up in a maelstom of bonhomie and adult beverages. I'm fairly certain that golf or tennis has nothing on an event like this which has to give any neophyte pause as to why they shouldn't indulge in this passion we take for granted as "yachting".

Day 3-- Saturday

Seemingly, every 4-5 years, there falls a chilly drizzle for a couple of days and the show then becomes a bust. But not so far for this show; once again, great weather similar to yesterday...the kind of sunshine and balmy temps that seem to draw out an inordinate number of comely ladies, moreso even than the vaunted FLL Show.
I concur with Goplay in his previous post on the (lack of) crowds so far this year; usually, the Saturday-Sunday mobs dwarf the prior two days' attendance, but not today...unless you count the number of tykes in strollers. Another Baby Boom? Wonder how their boat-buying habits will differ from ours....

Also, the usual Buyer's MO of Get In, Get It Done, and Get Out on Thursday & Friday was displaced by a significant presence of the truly serious today. The bad news is, everyone seemingly has a trade. There appears to be, however, sufficient anecdotal evidence which suggests that a burgeoning number of Sellers have relinquished their belief in The Gross Investment Theory [credit duly given to Mike Joyce's keen observation and clever editorial from years ago] and are increasingly participating in the term I have just now coined: Buyer Seller--Realization In Pricing, or BS--RIP.
Seriously, no one has a truly good handle on what a used boat is worth these days other than...it's less than when we last spoke, Mr. Owner.

Very nice photo [post #10], Tom, of what is surrealistic enough to appear to be a PS'ed image but is definitely not--it's the real deal--very cool effect, those blue lights on such a large number of boats--it's worth a drive-by past the show site post-sunset just for that, IMO.

Day 4--Sunday

Comes foggy early on, then not-a-cloud-in-the-sky picture-perfect day not long after the 10:00 AM start, albeit a tad warm as a frontal passage oozes closer with it's freight of humidity out of the southwest flow. Tomorrow--the final day--it's supposed to blow and get cooler by afternoon. Activity on the docks is hit & miss: some boats have people waiting to board whilst others languish.

By late morning and then later on after lunchtime, the smallish number of serious prospects (really, by now they are easy to pick out from the general crowd of vendors, brokers, gangs of Amazons in 8-inch high heels-- not exaggerating too much here!--appear with Viking or Hatteras stickers (pasted on by the sales folk in the new-boat displays which signify to their salespeople where Fred and Ethel are from) stuck on Fish-themed shirts signifying worthiness among the hoi polloi...they are fish in a barrel, as it were, for those paying attention in the brokerage section. Buyers up!
There is a noticeable (to the cognoscenti manning the boats) stirring of activity not seen as much on the opening days... while the finance guys across the 'street' from us report no new D&B checks by late afternoon, there are more brokers with their gamefaces on taking clients around to inspect boats.

There is more docktalk about what will happen post-show: reality checks viz. pricing, offers being made purely to gauge what 'market values' truly are, and actual boat sales--not a lot, mind you, but the beginning of...something approaching a recovery in the brokerage business (sorry, New Boat guys, your recovery is a ways off as there is simply too much product out there right now and for the forseeable future). While the bottom may not be here yet, it is thisclose, IMHO.

I am mostly in agreement with NYCAP123's viewpoint; see his post above. Seeing as most everybody is wanting to move up and yet has a boat to trade, OK--the smaller (less expensive) boat takes a commensurately smaller hit, and the replacement (larger, more expensive) boat gets bought now at a sizable discount--as the market comes back (no worries, it will, and it will astound the innocents), these larger boats will not suffer the big resale hits in a few years out as is being felt now. All of which means a BIG WIN for those who get in early in the recovering market.

Fearless prediction [cut & paste this in your Outlook Calendar for Thanksgiving 2009--it's gonna happen, Jack]: while the 2009 MIBS Brokerage Show will not set any records, those in tune to what's going on (and who recognize that the boat economy leads the general economy into recession and then out of it) will point to it, in the economic rearview mirror, as the humble beginnings of the next Boat Bull Market.

Again, my $.02...after over thirty years in this challenging business.

Day 5--Monday...Final day

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the weather continues to be show-perfect with a sunshiny cooler/drier afternoon on the north breeze.
Finally, a "normal" Monday, i.e., slow-as-molasses & very thin crowds, but with a few tenacious types trying to negotiate a deal to fruition, which really makes it a slightly different kind of Monday. As these discussions move onto post-boat show days, it will be telling as to "who blinks"...my guess is that the potential buyers have the dough as well as the time, while some of these sellers, who occupy the same solar system and third dimension as the rest of us, won't win that race.
'Mark-to-market', as the financialistas term it, is coming soon to the yacht business, just you wait.

Pardon the digression [Rant on], but in light of our governing class flailing about with efforts to manage the current home foreclosure situation by attempting to engineer reductions in mortgage rates as well as principal owed (a strategy that would net you an 'F' in Econ 101)--they could do well to stand back and observe what Mr. Market is accomplishing with ever-increasing quickness in the yacht markets sans all the jiggery-pokery (plus associated costs) for everyone to figure out what the value of a particular yacht actually soon will be. Huzzah! [Rant off]

People who stop by during the show and actually show up in the following days are known as "be-backs". We had a family from Puerto Rico, who lost their 58 SF to an accident over a year ago, show up today as be-backs...from last year! A tough market indeed.

Among the many luminaries who passed by the display, we counted Hargrave's Mike Joyce (who promised for the umpteenth time to produce a poster version of 'The Gross Investment Theory'--a chuckle on high pricing of yachts, timely even now) as well as your Publisher, Carl, in the company of a shockingly pretty blonde lass...matching YF shirts, natch.

The smartly outfitted CAY 55 Viking next to us pulled out at 5:00, a full hour prior to The Blowing Of The Horns, which signifies the end of the show. A huge bellowing of many hundreds of Kahlenburgs, Buells, and Signaltones (like viewing Tom's photo of all those 'Blue Light Specials' in his post above--you simply gotta be there to enjoy the full effect) echoing off the Green & Blue Diamonds & Eden Roc edifices across Collins Avenue, bringing multitudes out onto those balconies to see what the heck is going on...t'was just the yachties, folks, saluting yet another end to one of the greatest boat shows on the planet.