Guesses on Markets Returning to “Normal”

This is a fair point. I’m not sure I disagree with you, but what I have observed over the last year seems quite different than the normal up and down cycles tied to the broader economy.

These are some of the data points I’m considering when thinking of the current market as anomalous and temporary:

1) I spent 4 months of the last year on our current boat with my family up and down the East Coast. Probably 1/3-1/4 of the people we met on the docks were new boaters since COVID. Most were trawlers and motor yachts, but a couple were medium size SF

2) of the people above, I met a few people who had bought boats specifically to cruise during COVID and had no intention of keeping them. One guy told me he planned to run the boat heavily for a year, do no maintenance, and sell it effectively paying only for fuel and dockage for a boat he otherwise couldn’t afford.

3) The class of boats I’m most familiar with - older 35-42’ sporties - has “appreciated” by up to 30% since COVID for clean, particularly well maintained boats

I don’t know what all of these data mean if anything, but my sense is that there was a surge of demand for COVID and, economy aside, there should be a bit of a pullback. Maybe not to pre-COVID levels. Or maybe there will be a trough if inventory spikes.

I could be wrong. But “normal” to me means no particularly unusual circumstance (like COVID) driving a surge (or plummet) in demand.

GLWS, that would definitely be on my list of dream boats!

Yep that's what I'm seeing. A ~2000 hatteras with 3406 or 3412's seems to be my target at this point. Sounds like the 3406 will still give me an honest 25kt cruise in that hull, which i could live with and be fine.

Are there other any notable 2 stateroom convertibles in the 42-47' range that have a large second stateroom that sleeps 4? The 47' cabo comes to mind - but it looks like its really a 50' class SF with the pricing to match. Plus there seem to be some haters on the ride quality, although I wonder if that's a bit of an internet myth. Cabo 43 has a great layout and looks like it sleeps 3 in the 2nd stateroom. That may be an option, but they really don't look much cheaper.

I wouldn't mind giving up the 3rd stateroom as long as the kids could have a friend or two come with us for the weekend without having people sleeping in the saloon. But for the 3rd stateroom i don't really need a 50' boat. I've been happy with my 38' bertram's sea handling capabilities, other than a bit too much roll on the troll.

The sale on my Bertram has now closed. I did better than I expected (full asking price - offer was signed and accepted within about a week of listing) so we decided to treat ourselves to a family boat shopping trip this weekend to ft lauderdale (not much to see around me in the Annapolis area).

It was quite a frustrating experience but insightful.

When I booked my tickets about a week ago, our primary targets were a 3412 powered 50 hat and a 47 Cabo, along with whatever else my agent thought we should see.

By the time we headed to the airport Friday afternoon, all of the boats we’d “lined up” to see were under contract and unavailable. My broker scrambled to line up some new boats to see and we decided to continue with our trip.

Woke up to a text Saturday morning from my agent telling me there was nothing available to see. I did a search of every 47-55’ 97-2007 ocean, hatteras, Cabo, Viking, and post in south Fl. He spent the morning calling on them. Nearly all were under contract, or in some cases already sold but still on YW fir some reason. Ultimately we were only able to see a disaster of a Viking 52 (chartered to death) and a well cared for but older than we want hat 54.

the next day we saw a gorgeous but not on the market Viking 52

So…the market continues to be insane. We still enjoyed ourselves but don’t plan to waste money on another boat shopping trip unless it’s to look at something we’re already holding with a deposit.

Really is a terrible practice. Of the 10 or 12 boats that were still showing on YW Saturday morning, only 1 was actually for sale. Not a single one of the others said "pending" or anything. I don't want to say it was a wasted trip, but I certainly wouldn't have spent $3k on plane tickets, hotel room, and rental car if we knew what was actually for sale (which was almost nothing).