2nd Attempt-Coronavirus Covid 19 and the Marine Industry

A Sydney (Aust) perspective. After thinking about your comment and talking to friends in different industries (retail, medical, finance, convention centre) over the past week, I have to reluctantly agree.

Realistically, there is no vaccine for 12-18 months, if not much longer, so the only way to manage it is tracking and suppression until reduced to small and seasonal outbreaks. Unlikely it will be eradicated. The impact on economic activity in certain sectors has been like a light switch, and as time goes on, will impact most of the economy. Counter intuitively, I think (and hope) the lock downs will reduce the overall economic damage by shortening the duration of the threat. Speaking for my family and business, Without restrictions, the rate of transmission and infected would be at a level where there is fair chance that you and people you know would get it. And while only 2% die from it, assuming sufficient medical capacity, a lot get very sick at home and have a slow recovery with residual issues. Speaking for my family and employees, we would be in voluntary lock down in such a situation, and I suspect enough of the population would do the same, resulting in a similar (or worse) economic impact, but over a longer period.

On the brighter side, we have very low infection rates here, and only about 40 intensive care beds in use, so we may get easing of restrictions in a month or two, but with sporting events, bars, conventions, and such gatherings closer to the end of the year. Oh, and our coffee shops are open for take away coffee, so there are still some small pleasures, along with a walk or run by the harbour each day.

You know when you are running/cycling/insert activity here and you are exhausted, but you tell yourself not to give up and go a little further. Well, that's us all. We have to grind along and hope that the game of chance that is life, is going to give us an OK outcome.

Finishing on a boating note, now that my kids are finishing school, and fuel is cheaper than water, I have started the unwise (economically) process of looking at boats for sale. Scrumpy Vixen No.4 is out there.

The death count will start going down too. There's a lag here. Those dying today were admitted 1-2-3 weeks ago.

Oil prices crashed this morning - down to $11.00/bbl for WTI. https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
But of course Bakken oil is still making money on it, fields will start closing down. Workers will be out of jobs for the foreseeable future.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/s...under_10_a_barrel-30-mar-2020-161565-article/

From your lips to God's ear. Assuming that happens what would you credit for the decline since we presently have no vaccine or cure? Seems the only thing we've done is social distancing, which is currently under attack.

Oil has gone NEGATIVE - first time in history of OPEC
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historic-oil-crash-sends-canadian-oil-prices-negative
I may have to open a storage tank here - lemme see if they offload 10,000 bbls - they'll pay me $350,000 USD!!

Cheap fuel and nowhere to go.

Crap, I need to burn....someone grab the lines. Rum is already aboard.

So the weak,sick and old that were vulnerable are the obvious first victims,than those caring for them..As they get less, so will the death cases..for the ones not inflected yet,have to keep them continued isolated and let the rest of us keep the country running.We all know a non tested but clearly corona individual how did fine..."smart" social distancing works if most people follow..look at the smarter european countries...negative oil is only one of the many to come un-expectedted consequences of shutting down a country..

All things require balance. Of course no dollar value can be put on a human life but the social price being paid is also beyond dollar value. With quarantine has come increases in child abuse, domestic violence and substance abuse. The oil debacle is but a sign of things to come. We must begin an intelligent opening but we must open or face the further consequences, including but not limited to social unrest. As the days pass we will see the structural price, rough seas ahead.

Well I guess we'll see if it's time to open up. The citizens of Georgia, South Carolina and Jacksonville Florida have volunteered to be our Guinea pigs. Let's see what happens there (or doesn't) in about 2 or 3 weeks. If the virus is curing itself like a miracle those will be great places to vacation and live. If Social Distancing is what's been cutting the transmission rates, well …..