2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

Nice to see respected members being gentlemen. I think we all agree, we're living in legendary times.

Thread is open. Let's stay on track and hope this hurricane doesn't!

Right now the target is further north, around cocoa beach and Melbourne. You can’t look at one model and call it a forecast. We won’t get a more precise idea of landfall until tomorrow night or even Friday morning.

www.windy.com are forecasting gusts up to 100 kts in Fort Lauderdale.
Hoping they are wrong, but planning for them being right.
(Tried to upload the screen shot, File is too big)

The problem with windy and other similar apps is that they use just one model. In this case it must be the euro which is further south than the others. At 4 days we re still to far out.

On a positive note for south Florida a storm making landfall north is normally far less damaging than a system passing south or south west. Not only are tropical system stronger on the north side when moving west but but winds will be mostly westerly greatly reducing surge, waves and even wind impacts along the shoreline.

Windy offers three different models, GFS, NAM, and ECMWF.

Current consensus has landfall early Monday, north of Vero Beach. However, the four major models have done a bit of a change. GFS now has it hitting further up the coast as does HWRF. UKMET has it hitting around Vero Beach and HMON has it hitting around West Palm. ECMWF has it currently hitting around Boynton Beach later Monday as it has it slowing down as it crosses directly over the Abacos.

Tomorrow is when we can expect the models to converge more and to see more accuracy.

Windy.com has moved the landfall slightly North, yesterday the eye was at Boca Raton, today at Boynton Beach. Predicted wind gusts in Fort Lauderdale still at 108kts.
Yes, too early for an accurate forecast, Friday should be interesting..

Yes... and the GFS paint a very different picture. That’s the problem with models becoming so available to the public. You need to be able to know which is right, which is not so right and that s a job for the pros at the NHC.

That is if you're looking at the ECMWF model. Switch to GFS and you get a very different picture.

The windfield upon landfall in Windy is all wrong as it shows it to be symmetrical. It never is. Hurricane and TS force wind never extend as far to the South as they do to the north (in a system moving to the west)

The wind on Windy I'm looking at is not symmetrical. I don't know what you're looking at. The ECMWF is more symmetrical than the GFS but it still is more north than south field and the GFS extends much further north up to the point of landfall. Then as it moves up the coast it develops a huge tail and the field to the south is far greater than the one to the north. You apparently are missing that Windy has more than one model. ECMWF has other systems forcing it south while GFS has less resistance from the north.

11 AM forecast has it becoming a CAT 4 before landfall.

If it follows the GFS forecast it would definitely be an outlier. No CAT 3 or higher has ever landed between Fort Pierce and the GA border. Furthest north in FL was Jeanne in 2004 landed around Stuart as a CAT 3.

ECMWF: as symmetrical as it gets

NOAA/NHC are doing live updates broadcast on,,,,facebook. I know, I know.

Over the years, I’ve found the US Navy forecast to be the most reliable, less hype and just the facts.... Also like the depiction of wind fields

Oh boy...Good luck to my newly found friends. Be cool , think smart, prepare the best you can, stay clear and be safe . Hope they are wrong, but looks like one of you are going to get it.
It's all speculation for the next say 36 hours...IMO as to where it's really going to hit. Well you are all sharp , experienced boaters/yachtsmen and you'll do what's best. Again good luck to all.

To be clear this is not a USN forecast. It is a very nice graphical representation of the official NHC forecast