2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

The problem is, evacuating. I live in Pompano Beach,FL. So where do you run to when a Cat 5 is coming that might not be in the path of the storm if it decides to change course. The furthest inland from all coasts seems to be Orlando and that still wouldn't be enough if a direct hit came through Orlando. So it's either fly to Chicago or the West Coast of somewhere middle of country or, you're still at risk.

And Pompano seems to be in this storms view...although not a Cat 5...yet, anyway. Murphy, you hear me knocking on wood?

Yeah, car gets tangled in the traffic. Hunker down is usually my got too. Did it with Andrew, bad night. If flying out, likely I go to Atlanta, check into an airport hotel and look to get back as quickly as I can. I evacuated the Keys for Andrew, to South Dade. Sat on the 18 mile stretch for 3 or 4 hours. Hindsight, I was better off in the Keys.

Hurricane don’t turn without warning. I don’t recall any storm over the last 30 years where the NHC was off by more than 30 to 50 miles at 72 hours.

Where NHC often misses is intensity forecast and this one maybe one of these cases

NHC website has archives of all advisories and forecasts...

In the case of Storms that have turned before landfall, the turn was forecasted well ahead of time.

Worst case scenario is a system coming at an angle to the coast, like Dorian may do. But even then, there are options. Even intense hurricane only have hurricane force wind storm extending 75 to 80 miles from the center meaning you don’t have to go that far to avoid damage.

Irma? Pretty much. . It made landfall South of marathon on Sunday morning By Thursday morning the NHC was starting to mention shifting the track a little more to the west away from Miami and gradually closer to the west coast. I waited till the 11PM advisory to be sure and left right after. Arrived in hatchet Harbor at Noon.

It a going to be going back n forth over the next 2 days before the bull’s eye can be painted. If you see TWC trucks rolling into your neighborhood... you know you re in for a ride

I think I've told this story once before on YF...

Back in the 2000s (can't remember which hurricane), I was watching a local news reporter doing his segment at Ft. Lauderdale beach. He acted like the wind speed was so high that it was difficult to hold position. Then he made the mistake of pulling a Kestrel wind meter out of his pocket and the cameraman caught a glimpse of the speed... 17 mph.

Hurricane prediction is still struggling to properly consider the rising temperatures and elevated sea levels. There was a time in which hurricanes were more likely to be less powerful than forecast than they are today. The last few years, nearly every hurricane hitting the US has been more powerful and carried more rain than initially forecast.

Now we have Dorian. 48 hours ago it was forecast to be a tropical storm when it hit US mainland. 24 hours ago the forecast was a CAT 1. This morning it was CAT 2. Now it's forecast to be CAT 3 and the primary forecast area for landfall is between Canaveral and Daytona. Forecast to become CAT 2 on Saturday, CAT 3 on Sunday and make landfall around 8:00 AM on Monday.

Since this morning the models have come closer to a consensus. Now, all the major models have landfall between Stuart and the Georgia border. This morning one had it in SC. That is the one that now has it making landfall around Jacksonville.

Looking at the Ensemble of all forecasts, this morning one had it just continuing up the coast and never making landfall while a couple had it veering west and landfall as far west as Louisiana. Now there is one outlier which has it crossing Cuba and another which has it south of Key West and both those have it going to the gulf coast. However, all other members now have it making landfall somewhere on the East coast of FL, crossing the state, then the Gulf coast and inland from there.

The picture has changed dramatically and now it appears rather certain that Dorian will make landfall on the East Coast of FL as a major hurricane. Many of us are well prepared for a CAT 3, but others were thinking CAT 1 and now must readdress their situation. CAT 1 generally doesn't involve evacuations but CAT 3 does.

This is the new world of hurricane forecasting. They gain intensity they once would not have and the initial forecasts seem to come up way short of what develops. That's been true with every hurricane that has made landfall for at least the last 3 years.

I was a naysayer as to worrying about hurricanes. However, Harvey, Maria, Irma, and Florence have changed me. Mexico City, FL and Puerto Rico are still not recovered. Now, we have Dorian on the way and an already underfunded FEMA just had more funds taken away. Oh, they're probably fine for the first hurricane of the season but not the later ones. They did well in Key West and in Texas, decently but not as well in SC and NC and horribly on the gulf coast of FL and in PR and the US VI.

I thought Ralph was being silly when he started this thread, all about some weak little tropical storm. Apparently, he knew something the rest of us didn't. By your scale it's gone from Have a Party to Battan Down the Hatches and for many it may be Head for the Hills.

There is no evidence that recent years storms have gotten stronger. Tropical activity goes thru up and down cycles both in frequency and intensity. For instance 1995 was a pretty bad one with Cat 5 and then they ran out of names.

What people need to understand is that often the NHC forecast will be a average of the possibilities. A couple of days ago there were two scenario. Dorian taking a longer route in dry air and Alex destroying over Hispaniola or a more easterly route and getting out of the Carib petty intact. The minimal hurricane in Florida was an average. Now we know which scenario is about to happen

The Space Coast landfall isn’t a given yet. Some models have shifted more to the south and I wouldn’t be surprised if the 5 PM follows

As to FEMA, a lot of the failures comes from what happens locally. Both the USVIs and PR are a mess of incompetent politician and heavy corruption.

Now here is an inconvenient truth the fakenews is hiding... in August 2014, even more money was taken out of the FEMA budget (and USCG!!!) for the exact same purpose of handling illegals crossing the southern border... nobody complained back then.

Yep... 5pm discussion:

The new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and the track models show more of a westward motion.

Yes, there is evidence as to both the strength of the hurricanes and the cause.

You're just parroting what a famous bigot and racist is saying in the things you're saying about USVI and PR. Yes, PR has issues at times with it's politicians as we all do, but they are not the issue with the failure to receive even a significant part of the aid congress provided.

Yes, funds have been moved around before but never to the extent of today. Yes, some did complain before.

Attacking the people of PR as a hurricane is about to hit them again is disgusting and callous.

Now, I hope we can return to the current hurricane.

The current ECMWF model has landfall between Boynton Beach and West Palm. We'll see if they move toward the other models or the others move toward them.

You re the one taking it off track towards politics.

Facts : look up how much was taken out of fema and USCG back in 2014. It was more than this time

Fact: PR and the USVI are corrupt. I used to live on St Thomas... same with PR... The power grid fell apart because money was wasted on phony contracts . The FBI has arrested many high ranking officials... the list goes on. This has nothing to do with racism or bigotry. Why is racism always invoked when the truth stings?

Fact: look up the annual NHC reports and you will see it s a cycle. Has nothing to do with climate change

I apologize for taking it off track. I was expressing concern over hurricane aid as funds have regularly run short. Unfortunately, a lot of it has much to do with bigotry and racism and I won't ignore that. Deny science and fact all you wish, but we just had the warmest July and August in history and the water has risen. Now, I took it back on track with my other post and I'll try to leave it there.

I apologize but... how typical... then here come the words bigot and racist again.

I guess science has progressed to the point one can claim August is the hottest on record even though the month isn’t over... science is big business and billions are at stake In case you haven’t noticed.

Water as risen?? Since when... I haven’t noticed deeper water under my wheels in places I’ve been going to in 30 years... I guess we should believe a quarter inch more water will affect hurricane.

Again, look up the NHC archives... there has been far worst seasons in the past with more and stronger cyclones