2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

Kids
Seems a lil low way out there has already been numbered TD5.
It will be on the eastern isles Tuesday and PR by Thursday and planed to gain strength from today

Keep your weather eyes open and stay safe,
Ralph & Josie

Already has a name;
TS Dorian is forecast to strengthen over the next few days while tracking west
northwest towards the Lesser Antilles.
Dorian may impact the Dominican Republic late next week as a strong tropical storm.

Fingers crossed for it to die as your kids are forecasting.
The important part; At least three of us looking.

I remember your last dash east in sh** weather at the last minute when all else went west.
I hate last minute maneuvers, yours was correct and all were safe.
Trying to avoid this, it has a similar line.

Sunday, August 25, 2019


Tropical Storm Dorian is slowly become better organized as environmental conditions become more favorable. Gradual strengthening can be expected over the next few days before impacting the Lesser Antilles early in the week.

Is this what you read? ;;
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



WTNT35 KNHC 252334
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 54.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 54.8 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

I am feared I'm missing something here. Is this the head scratcher?

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

AND

Gradual strengthening can be expected over the next few days before impacting the Lesser Antilles early in the week.


My text is copied/pasted from dotEDU sites and high seas private weather forecasters.
My post #12 was from NHC to help figure your itch.

Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened since yesterday and conditions may allow for continued intensification over the next few days as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. However, there is a good deal of uncertainty with regards to how much it will intensify.
Invest 98L is slowly organizing as it lifts northeastward across the western Atlantic Ocean. It maintains a high threat for further development over the next few days.

Just off DRs north coast. It will be a Cat1 then. When It passes, back to a TS for a short time.
Black line is still Miami.